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Global Markets Analysis – 11 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.01.2016 周一 美盘豆油3月继续在60天均线上方横盘震荡

美盘豆油3月合约在日K线图表上,在前高点位置以及60天均线2大技术支撑位置(29.50一线),已经连续4天横盘震荡,短线的下挫整理过程中,空头主力始终未将期价打压下去,表明该技术位置明显存在多头护盘,从短线角度来说-这种横盘震荡走势不会延续很久,必定以一方胜出而决定出短线期价的运行方向,这将在2016年开盘后的第二周给出答案,从盘口技术语言分析,空头主力若打压动能衰竭,不能将期价下破60天线,后市多头的反攻又将成为可能。我们继续场外关注美盘豆油的短线走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,在日K线图表上均线系统为多头排列,在美盘短线动向不明朗情况下,内盘油脂商品期价呈现抵抗性整理,期价整体波动收窄,成交量略显萎缩,多空主力均为明显发力,操作上表现出对后市短线的谨慎。我们散户朋友平仓出局后仍以场外观望为宜,多空暂时均不操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,早先在反弹上行到2500整数大关受阻之后期价略有走低,而回落到下方40天 60天均线位置(2410一线)后又出现技术支撑,当前马盘棕榈短线走势在2410-2500之间100点内区间波动震荡,短线操作的意义不大,短线稳健操作者观望。

小结:油脂类商品的短线技术走势不清晰,基本面也较为混乱,传统意义上来说,中东地区的政治地缘发生危机时候,国际原油价格本应该上涨才对,可在混乱的情绪下,对整体经济层面的悲观情绪却令美原油仍持续走低。植物类油脂商品短线走势也较模糊,跌不像跌而涨也不叫涨。徘徊震荡波动。该局面将在本周被打破。美元指数短线走势出现回落迹象,这令期货市场以美元计价的大宗商品的下行压力略减,让我们睁大双眼继续密切关注油脂商品后市走势。个人观点认为具体操作上:原长线多单继续持有。中线操作者多单谨慎持有。短线交易者多空均不操作,等待本周油脂商品短线走势给出明确技术信号,然后我们再第一时间进场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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