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Global Markets Analysis – 11 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.01.2018周四美国农业部报告出炉前油脂市场略显焦躁与迷惑

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日周三晚间期价中阴下跌,期价仍徘徊在上升趋势线位置。美国农业部报告明天晚间出炉(北京时间后天凌晨),当前市场分析人士普遍预测美国大豆期末库存会上调?当前这种悲观情绪笼罩在油脂商品市场——我们不去跟着市场分析人士去盲目猜测报告属于利空或者利多?只是在操作上继续在反弹短多观点下,多单继续减持。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,从12月底以来开始的这波反弹上行走势,从当前反弹的高度来说——还远远不够高度,因此上当美盘豆油出现犹豫徘徊时候,内盘油脂多头主力还在顽强抵抗,期价下挫幅度不大,隐隐中还有上冲欲望,但在农业部报告公布前,多空主力谁也不敢盲目发力,内盘市场暂时处于一片迷茫中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,经过短线反弹上行之后,最近几日期价也出现横盘反复迹象,期价反抽到前波下挫的50%位置(2647一线)出现一定技术阻挡,我们是最早就警示在该位置老多单逢高减仓操作的(周二时候)。今天周四盘面为减仓下行——主力多头获利盘减仓迹象明显。

小结:美国重要报告出炉前,油脂市场表面安静中,暗底下却激流涌动——市场主力暗中调换持仓仓位。而我们早两日就做了此操作—–无论美盘基本面是利空下跌?还是利多上涨?我们均不会再受到多大冲击。具体操作上:老多单逢高平仓完毕后,低位补仓多单继续持有,部分持单心态不稳的散户朋友——可再继续减持低位多单,减持多少合适呢?就减持到无论市场如何风云变幻,你能做到内心“波澜不惊”状态就是你的持仓最佳状态。

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oil markets appear calm ahead of key US agricultural data.

[ACTION]
• After liquidating earlier initiated long positions, traders may retain long positions taken at lower prices.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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