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Global Markets Analysis – 11 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.07.2016 中国南海局势紧张;密切关注后期动向

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五时候中阳上涨红盘报收,期价暂时止跌,今天周一亚洲电子盘美豆油继续小阳表现。基本符合我们的预期-美盘豆油下方的回落空间不会很大。考虑到美盘豆油回落整理的时间相当充分,我们暂且以短空思维对待,但仍坚持看空却不做空的思维对待,继续等待超跌之后的反弹上行技术表现。

中国大陆方面-在英国脱欧事件之后,中国方面又出现问题-菲律宾、越南等小国对中国南海岛屿主权发生争执,申请海牙国际法庭仲裁-此刻南海局势相当紧张,美国的2艘航母战斗群已经集结在周边,美韩又在韩国部署了萨德反导系统,日本也派出军舰停靠在菲律宾码头。中国从7月5日至7月11日在南海军演习,军演封住了南海的出入口,进出口船只将无法行驶,此刻的南海局势已然剑拔弩张,是否发生擦枪走火的局面不可预料,海牙仲裁法庭将在7月12日公布仲裁结果,这对南海局势的影响以及对后期中国经济的影响尚在观察中。而对于我们较为关心的油脂类商品来说,不是一件好事,油脂类商品的进出口贸易将受到一定阻碍。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周一盘面呈现出4连阴大跌(7月5日开始的)之后的小阳K线,内盘油脂商品抵抗性下挫进行中。

马来西亚方面-马来西亚也是本次海牙法庭仲裁的申索国之一,但争议范围没有菲越那么大。马来西亚还充分运用了南海局势,加紧与中国的经贸合作。马来西亚交通部长表示,马方计划与中国合资建设巴生第三港口,“由于70%至80%航经马六甲海峡的船只的目的地是中国,所以马国交通部希望中国参与该港口计划。”看来 中马关系前景还是比较乐观。对马盘毛棕榈油来说,棕榈油基准9月,上周五开盘后巨幅跳空下跌,今天周一早盘继续阴K线下跌,马盘毛棕榈油的疲软走势延续中。

小结:中国南海局势紧张,美国政府军事上的耀武扬威与中国南海军事延续“秀肌肉”形成两军对垒状态,剑拔弩张局势下的擦枪起火可能性增大,虽然双方从内心深处不愿意就此开战,但双方的强硬态度令当前局势扑朔迷离,啥可能性都有,不可研判后期发展局面。对于油脂类商品来说-我们继续保持短空思维观点,但下挫之后的技术反弹又是我们后市期望的(本轮下跌是为后期的上涨做准备),因此我们继续执行“一颗红心;两手准备”。多空仓单对锁,锁定账面风险后,我们密切关注南海局势以及美盘豆油的后市走势,时刻为逢低的空单离场做好准备。看来7月份注定成为一个不可避免的动荡月。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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