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Global Markets Analysis – 11 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.07.2017周二油脂类商品对前高一线发起挑战

纽约原油期价反弹到60天均线位置出现短线下挫,美盘黄豆连受天气利多情绪影响期价“井喷式”上涨—–美盘豆油走势介于二者之间,从昨日周一晚间美豆油12月合约的长阳K线来看,美豆油受美大豆的提振作用更明显一些。当前美盘豆油12月合约期价上破前高34.00一线(前几次反弹的高点位置),从美豆油当前的量能表现以及技术走势动能表现来看,上破前高的概率非常大,这也基本符合我们心理预期,继续短多观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日周一盘面中阳K线上涨,短线反弹上行走势延续中。其中内盘棕榈油距离5月18日高点一步之遥,内盘豆油已经上破前高,在盘面未出现反弹衰竭信号前,多单谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日提到5月18日的前高点为2605令吉特,昨日周一盘中期价上冲该位置不到(仅冲刺进2590—2605这一包围圈内),今天周二盘面上,马棕榈继续对该位置发动攻击,上破的概率大增。

小结:全球植物类油脂商品短线反弹上行走势延续中,期价在加速中对前高点发动总攻击,从当前盘面上攻动能观察—–上破前高的概率非常大,基本上符合我们的心理预期值。在反弹动能未出现衰竭前,继续短多观点看待。具体操作上:前期多单乐观中带谨慎心态持有,盘中略有风吹草动可多单少量减仓,后期继续保持越上攻越逢高兑现心理准备(散户朋友可依据自己心理盈利水平个人操作,我这里提前说一句话,当直线上攻发展到最后(到达某个新高度)依旧会发生再次的短线回落现象)。

[SUMMARY]
• As the rebound of global vegetable oils continues, the march towards market high gathers momentum.
• Until the rebound shows sign of fatigue, we continue to hold a short-term long position.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions and may reduce of some those positions should there be unfavourable conditions.
• Retail traders are encouraged to take profits according to personal preference.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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