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Global Markets Analysis – 11 June 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.06.2015 周四 油脂商品后市;长多短空观点保持不变

6月11日消息,美国农业部周三发布月度供需数据显示,大幅调高了阿根廷2014/2015年度大豆产量为5950万吨,高于上月预测的5850万吨,巴西大豆产量维持9450万吨不变。同时美国农业部预测2014/2015年度美国大豆期末库存预计为3.30亿蒲式耳,低于上月预测的3.50亿蒲式耳。美国农业部还将2015/2016年度全球大豆库存调低到9320万吨,低于5月份预测的9620万吨,但仍高于2014/2015年度的8370万吨。个人认为整体分析本报告呈中性。

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日晚间以带上下影线的阴K线收盘,短线的回落整理进行中。

美盘原油昨日晚间小幅上涨,牛皮震荡格局延续,当前期价来到61.20一线,临近前期高点附近,后市仍存在短线技术走高可能。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1509合约,周四早盘继续延续短线的回落整理走势,期价在回落过程中成交量缩小,缩量整理的盘口语言告诉我们本波为反弹之后的强势整理迹象明显,下方空间不会太大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日周三盘中,低开低走终盘阴K线下跌收盘,受外围油脂市场走软影响回落,短线仍存期价下滑可能。

小结:油脂类商品的回落整理延续中,后市短线角度的走势将继续考验下方均线的支撑力度。短线上个人以短空观点看待为宜。美国环境保护署(EPA)宣布新的生物柴油用量强制目标,从先前的10亿加仑提高到16.3亿加仑,这对植物油市场中长线角度有潜在利多影响。马来西亚政府也计划在今年10月份把生物柴油掺混率从7%提高到10%,这从长线角度来说对棕榈油形成利多支持。因此个人继续保持在中长线角度看多情况不变观点下,暂时短线仍以强势的回落整理观点看待。建议继续延续周二提示的操作手法不变。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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