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Global Markets Analysis – 11 March 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.03.2015 周三 美国农业部报告中性略带偏空 油脂商品下挫整理延续

美国农业部在3月供需报告中保持2014/2015年的大豆结转库存3.85亿蒲式耳不变,高于市场分析师平均预期值3.76亿蒲式耳。同时还上调了全球大豆结转库存预估至8953万吨,上月预估8926万吨。美国农业部对巴西大豆产量预估值保持不变仍为9450万吨,对阿根延大豆产量预估值也保持不变为5600万吨,均与2月预估值相同。对中国2014/2015年度大豆进口预估为7400万吨而豆油进口预估为100万吨,整体与2月报告预估值相同。从报告内容分析,本报告中性略带偏空。

美盘豆油5月 昨日晚间十字星收盘,期价在30.00-31.00之间震荡,盘中当期价靠近下方30.00位置有些许少了买盘进场,但短线的回落整理仍在延续中,尚未完全调整到位。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,今天周三早盘继续追随美盘小幅回落整理,盘中成交依旧清淡,期价波动幅度狭窄,短线疲软整理行情延续中,市场继续保持观望。

马来西亚棕榈油局(BMD)周二月度数据显示 ,2月份马来西亚棕榈油库存为174万吨,比1月份减少1.5%。2月份马来西亚棕榈油产量为112万吨,比1月份减少3.4%。2月份马来西亚棕榈油出口为971640吨,环比减少18.4%。马来西亚周二报告中库存减少、产量减少为利多、出口量减少为利空,整体报告评价我们定性为中性。马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,在连续5连阴下挫整理之后,今天周三早盘小幅阳K线上涨,盘面显示回落整理行情延续中。

小结:美国农业部周二报告呈中性略偏空,马来西亚棕榈油局报告中性。油脂商品周三盘面显示下挫整理行情延续中,我们短线观点保持不变,继续以偏空回落整理观点看待。个人观点认为中线稳健者在调整未完全到位前继续场外观望。建议短线激进操作者继续逢高日内短空。共同耐心等待后市调整结束的信号出现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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