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Global Markets Analysis – 11 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.05.2015 周一 周末时间中国央行宣布降息

中国央行周日(5月10日)下午宣布,将1年期存款利率调降25个基点,至2.25%;1年期贷款利率也同时下调25个基点,至5.10%。如此一来笔者认为,未来中国还有降息,降准的更大空间。降息会导致市场流动性增大, 加大通货膨胀,降息是货币宽松信号的一种方式,对期货市场大宗商品价格上涨是一种利好支持。

中国降息提振了对中国需求的预期,美盘豆油7月合约,上周五晚间中阳K线红盘上涨,今天周一亚洲电子早盘继续红盘上行,短线又出现走强信号,上周三与周四的疲软得以改善,我们短线对美盘豆油继续短多看待。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,周一早盘高开高走,一改上周四与周五的短暂下挫,后市存在酝酿4浪复杂形态(2浪简单则4浪复杂)的可能,建议密切关注后期内盘的短线走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,上周四周五短暂下挫后,今天周一早盘再次高开,期价临近上方60天线附近存在技术压力,形成高开低走K线局面,但期价短线反弹上行走势仍未被破坏,继续断多看待。

小结:中国周日宣布降息,这对期货市场大宗商品普遍形成利多支持,个人短线对油脂类商品继续保持短多观点。观点认为中长线前期低位接盘多单继续持有。短线多单盯紧盘面变化继续谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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