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Global Markets Analysis – 11 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.05.2017 周四 美国农业部报告出炉后 美豆油期价剧烈波动

昨日周三晚间,美国农业部在其首份2017-2018销售年度农作物供需报告中 预估美国大豆年末库存为4.80亿蒲式耳,这一数值低于市场分析人士预估的5.63亿蒲式耳(利多)。美国农业部上调2016-2017年度,全球大豆年末总库存预估值至9.014万吨,这一数字高于市场预估区间的上限(数据偏空)。美国农业部预估2017-2018 全球大豆年末总库存为8.881万吨,高于市场预估的8.659万吨(稍微利空)。此外,美国农业部上调巴西2016–2017年度大豆产量预估至1.116亿吨,比四月份预估的1.11亿吨高出60万吨。上调阿根廷2016–2017年度大豆产量预估至5700万吨,比四月份的5600万吨 高出100万吨。报告数据出炉后—–昨晚美黄豆连曾一度跳涨至989.00(因美国大豆期末库存减少),后期价冲高回落(因全球大豆期末库存增加)。而美盘豆油7月合约,却低开低走中阴K线下跌收盘,期价果然在60天均线位置受到技术压力而走低,美豆油上存在多空主力在绞杀盘中散户嫌疑。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在美盘豆油昨日周三晚间中阴急跌后,今天周四早盘,内盘油脂商品期价却波动不大,豆油1709略微下跌,而棕榈油期价仍维持在昨日水平高度,并未追随美盘豆油出现大幅下跌。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日因公共节日停盘一天,今天周四开盘后,期价小幅低开,但盘中也并未出现恐慌下挫。

小结:美国农业部报告昨日晚间数据出炉,美豆油期价出现剧烈波动,短线上美盘油脂类商品出现短线反弹之后的走弱“苗头”。令人奇怪的是——今天内盘马盘油脂商品却并未紧紧跟随走低,表明内盘马盘上存在多头主力的抵抗行为。鉴于该矛盾迹象—–我们建议散户朋友根据自己个人脾气性格分2步操作。1.部分敏感型激进操作者可逢盘中高点适量多单减仓了结,先出场规避一下风险。2. 剩余操作者暂时多单谨慎持有,多观察一半日美豆油的后续表现。不过我个人还是建议适量平仓一部分多单为最佳策略(只持少了轻单)——-“未雨绸缪” “居安思危,有备无患”为上策,毕竟在60天均线位置确实属于一个可上可下的关键技术位置,虽然我们内心深处还是不认为目前反弹高度是最佳高度(后面应该还有更高高度),但还是需要防范一下美盘豆油的不利走势对整体油脂商品带来不利影响。(也就是说若美豆油若拖累内盘马盘油脂商品再次下挫下来,我们后市仍有机会在低位接回手中多单,没必要在市场模糊时期“硬抗” ,滚动操作一下也属于一种防御性策略)。

[SUMMARY]
• The release of the USDA report last night triggers a volatile session for US soybean oil, which shows a loss of momentum after the rebound.
• Surprisingly, China and Malaysia edible oils are not tracking the decline, indicating support by strong long interest.
• Given the uncertainty, traders may design strategy according to each individual’s character.
• While the direction of the 60-day moving average remains unclear, and despite our opinion that the market is yet to reach its peak, we should prepare for any possible adverse effect US soybean oil may have on the general edible oils market.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive and sensitive traders may liquidate some long positions to mitigate risk.
• Passive traders may cautiously retain long position and pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil.
• Nonetheless, it is advisable to reduce long positions to avoid undesirable conditions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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