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Global Markets Analysis – 11 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.11日 周二 油脂商品吸收消化报告内容呈现震荡走势

11月11日周二美国农业部最新报告出炉,2014/2015年度美国大豆期末库存预估值为4.5亿蒲式耳,高于市场预期的4.4,亿蒲式耳。大豆单产由上月的47.1上调至47.5蒲式耳/英亩。总产量上调至39.58亿蒲式耳,略低于市场预期的39.67。从报告内容来看,大豆期末库存与上月持平,单产与预期持平,总产量低于预期,报告内容整体呈中性。后期市场关注焦点将转移到南美天气对 巴西 和阿根廷的大豆播种影响上。(11月中旬这几天美国将收割完毕)。

美大豆短线走势上呈现反弹冲高后的横盘震荡,走势稍强。美豆油日图表上呈现快速冲高后又快速回落,回落幅度超出预期,当前仍在低位小幅震荡。周图表上呈现为长阳上涨后又再次长阴下跌,冲高失败后的横盘整理迹象明显。

马来西亚船运公司ITS10日发布最新数据显示,马来西亚11月份前10天棕榈油出口量为400,614吨,环比增长1.3%个百分点,报告显示中国进口量有所提高,增幅大于欧洲和印度的降幅。马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,前几日快速回落到40天线处略受支撑,期价今日小幅走高,当前走势受外围原油和豆油影响较明显,短线呈宽幅震荡整理走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油 1501合约,受国际原油、美盘豆油和马盘棕榈油走势影响,短线期价有所回落,中线角度的打区间横盘震荡迹象明显。

小结:全球油脂商品长线角度来说,仍处于低价区域的横盘筑底过程中,短线表现为上下宽幅震荡,夯实底部的走势仍在延续中。当前市场交易热情不高,多空主力均谨慎,考虑到美盘基金已经平空翻多,恐下方的回落空间不大。个人看法是已经平仓者继续场外观望,持半仓前期多单者谨慎持有,宽幅震荡下操作上宜静不宜动,等待走势更为明朗化

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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