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Global Markets Analysis – 11 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.11.2015 周三 昨晚美国农业部(USDA)报告利空

美国农业部周二(11月10日)发布11月份供需报告,数据显示:美国大豆单产为48.3蒲式耳/英亩,高于10月份预估的47.2,美大豆总产量上调至39.81亿蒲式耳,创下记录最高水平。2015/2016大豆结转库存预估上调至4.65亿蒲式耳,高于上月预估的4.25亿蒲式耳,同时也高出市场分析人士预测的4.36亿蒲式耳。从报告数据分析-该报告利空。闻讯后昨日晚间,美盘黄豆连与豆油12月双双中阴下跌,其中美豆油12月合约中阴K线下跌,期价脱离横盘状态下挫到60天均线下方,虽然中阴K线带有下影线,但短线的受利空影响盘中疲软可见。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周三早盘低开低走,盘中追随美盘走低,其中棕榈油1601存在挑战前低(2015年8月27日)前低的技术考验。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,周一时候中阳上涨临近前高2380一线,昨日周二因公共假期停盘,今天周三早盘,受美盘与内盘油脂商品下挫影响,早盘再次低开,期价仍呈窄区间内的跳跃式横盘震荡波动略有回落。

小结:美盘油脂受利空因素影响,美大豆与豆油期价下跌。美国方面的利空氛围依然较为严重。纵观当前整体期货市场各类大宗商品-期货市场当前就是一口大锅,各类大宗商品均在锅底附近徘徊,后市再走只能向上。仅仅是当前短线走势仍在锅底区域内的小幅波动震荡,建议继续等待利空出尽后的市场人气凝聚。个人继续保持震荡筑大底观点不变。观点认为中长短线多单继续持有,无仓单者继续场外静心观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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