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Global Markets Analysis – 11 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.10.2016 周二 油脂商品少量多单逢低进场埋伏

10月10日周一,全球两大原油生产国沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在世界能源大会期间共同表示,他们愿意合作限制原油产量,这种利多性质的表态推动国际原油价格走高。 昨日周一晚间,布伦特原油期价受此消息提振升破53美元/桶,飙涨3%创一年多以来新高。美国纽约原油也升破51美元,涨幅也达到3%创今年6月以来高点。 国际原油短线反弹上行走势延续中。

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间受国际原油价格上涨提振,以中阳K线红盘上涨收盘,日K线图标上下方的均线系统支撑有效,短线回落下挫之后的反弹上行走势开始明朗起来。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,受国际原油与美盘豆油昨日晚间上涨影响,今天周二早盘高开高走,其中豆油1701涨幅大于棕榈油。反弹上行出现苗头。

马来西亚毛棕榈油一般在每年的9-10月份是产量最高峰,由于今年厄尔尼诺现象的滞后性,马棕榈油的单产恢复迟缓。昨日周一吉隆坡最新消息:马来西亚棕榈油产量9月份比8月份仅仅微增0.8%至172万吨,创下2011年5年来最小月度增幅。 而马来西亚棕榈油库存较前月增加5.7%个百分点至155万吨,8月底库存为146万吨。同时马来西亚船运公司SGS周一数据显示,棕榈油10月1-10日出口量较前月同期增加1.9%,至403,650吨。马棕榈油基准12月,今天周二早盘高开,期价回落整理基本到位,下方短线走低空间有限,延续昨日操作建议逢低多单可考虑吸纳。

小结:国际原油与美盘豆油周一晚间期价同步上涨,直接提振了内盘与马盘油脂商品的走高,特别是内盘豆油1701合约。短线观察全球油脂类商品又出现回落之后的反身上行迹象,虽然美国农业部的报告要到周三晚间24:00才公布,但鉴于整体油脂商品的反弹上行出现苗头-观点认为操作上:逢阴K线或盘中低点位置,可少量多单先行进场埋伏,延续昨日报告中我们的操作思维模式。

[SUMMARY]
Summary:
• Global crude oil and US soybean oil rose on Monday night, boosting China’s markets.
• Malaysia’s edible oil advanced; China’s January 2017 soybean futures climbed.
• Overall edible oil products are seeing an upward reversal, as US Department of Agriculture is set to release report on Wednesday midnight.

[ACTION]
• Reiterating our outlook yesterday, traders may enter long positions in small amounts.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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