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Global Markets Analysis – 11 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.10.2017周三马来西亚棕榈油局报告内容利空棕榈油期价走低

美盘豆油12月合约,小幅横盘整理,期价波动变化不大。市场在等待明天(美国12日晚间,北京时间凌晨)美国农业部的报告出炉,在基本面不明朗前,美盘豆油恐将仍延续小幅波动,对美豆油我们继续保持短多思维(美国库存应该下降)。

马拉西亚方面—–昨日棕榈油局公布报告显示:9月份棕榈油产量连续第二个月下滑,较8月份环比减少1.77%至178万吨。棕榈油出口量较8月份环比提高1.8%至151.5万吨。而棕榈油库存量较8月份的194.2万吨上升3.8%至202万吨。这个库存数字为2016年2月以来新高。从报告内容分析—–本报告为“中性偏空”性质。昨日,马盘棕榈油基准12月期价受利空情绪影响出现中阴下跌,今天周三当前期价维持在2700一线。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日追随马盘棕榈油期价下挫带动,期价同样出现走低,盘中部分空头主力出现进场打压期价动作,好在内盘棕榈油期价仍维持在多头排列的均线系统60天均线上方。

小结:前面报告中我们曾提到过——在中线周期操作层面上,由于当前季节是大豆棕榈油的收获,产量高峰期,因此新豆大量上市的心理负面压力影响还是比较严重的,由于短线中线长线三个周期上,交易者对后市看法的不一致性,就比较容易产生情绪上的变化,从而会影响到期价的波动(三者反驳),单从短线角度上,我们是以超跌之后的短线“弱势反弹”技术修复观点对待的,因此上也比较容易受到中线周期交易上的那股下挫反向力的冲击,这种盘面特征也在我们的思考范围之内。短线上我们继续保持短多观点不变(但不会看反弹高度很高,仅仅以弱势反弹看待),基本面上,我们继续关注明天周四晚间美国农业部的报告内容出炉(利多?利空?)。操作上:前期多单继续谨慎持有,美盘豆油尚未出现明显的技术走坏。

[SUMMARY]
• Soybean and palm oil is expected to have the highest production in current session, therefore the market is bearish.
• Traders have inconsistent views on short term, middle term or even long term, prompting the market might be volatile.
• In short-term view, we hold short-term long outlook as the market retraced after it was oversold in previous session.

[ACTION]
• Traders may pay close attention to the upcoming USDA report, which will release on this Thursday.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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