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Global Markets Analysis – 11 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.11日周四 马来西亚MPOB数据公布喜忧参半

马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)9月10日周三月度报告出炉:公告显示8月份毛棕榈油产量为203万吨,比7月份的167万吨增加22%。数据还显示8月底马来西亚棕榈油库存增加至205万吨,比7月底的168万吨增加22%。

这一库存数据也是自2013年以来最高库存水平。MPOB数据整体呈现利空,受此影响马盘昨日盘中期价有所下跌,

后船运调查机构ITS发布的数据显示,马来西亚9月份1-10号棕榈油出口量为487,955吨,比上月同期出口增加将近41%。关税取消后出口量的良好数据令马盘毛棕榈油从盘中低位回升,终盘以带下影线的阳K线收盘,截止今日期价仍处于10日均线上方,出口关税利好消息处于吸收消化中。

美盘将于今日晚间至9月12日周五凌晨公布美国农业部报告,报告内容涉及到大豆单产产量,大豆总产量,全球油脂商品总库存等。这将影响到美盘黄豆连和美豆油12月合约今晚的走势。截止到9月11日当天,美盘豆油12月合约仍处于下行态势中,密切关注今晚该报告对盘面的影响。

大陆内盘油脂商品受近期美盘油脂类商品的持续下跌影响,棕榈油1501合约期价已经滑落到原横盘区间的下沿位置,原箱体的支撑作用岌岌可危。而内盘豆油1501合约走势更弱,已经提前跌破8月25日的低点,技术走坏出现苗头。

小结:马盘基本面(MPOB)数据情况喜忧参半,当前马盘毛棕榈油基准11月仍受10日均线支撑,盘面很明显受良好的出口预期情绪影响,部分反弹操作主力仍顽强抵抗中,个人观点认为期价在10日均线上方抵抗运行,已平多单了结出局者可旁边观望。若期价下破10均线的支撑,则空单进场。由于美盘今晚的农业部报告还未公布,利空消息的嫌疑仍未被排除,大陆内盘油脂商品可于豆油1501合约技术破位后少量空单进场。当前油脂类商品整体仍处于弱势格局中(马盘略强)。后市密切关注美国农业部报告数据。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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