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Global Markets Analysis – 11 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.09.2015 周五 美国农业部今日将发布9月份月度供需报告

美国周五东部时间12点(北京时间周六凌晨),美国农业部将发布9月份月度供需报告,不排除小幅调低美大豆库存的可能,这将提振美盘黄豆走势,建议关注该报告是否打破美盘黄豆与美盘豆油的短线横盘疲软态势,当前美盘豆油12月合约短线仍呈现横盘低位震荡走势,短线的方向性指引力度不强。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,昨日周四盘中小幅震荡走高,今天延续窄幅波动,期价变化不大,虽重心略有上移,但反弹力度较弱,成交量始终不能有效放大,盘中抵抗性谨慎观望心态较重。

马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)周四发布的月度数据显示:2015年8月份马来西亚毛棕榈油产量为205.1万吨,比7月份的181.6万吨提高12.96%。8月份出口量为160.8万吨,比7月份的161.3万吨减少0.3%。8月底棕榈油库存为249.5万吨,比7月底的226.7万吨提高10.04%。整体报告数据呈利空,但由于产量与库存的提高已经在投资人预料当中,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月昨日继续长阳红盘上涨,前期的反弹上行走势延续中,马币令吉特的疲软对马盘毛棕榈油的震荡盘升功不可没。

小结:马盘棕榈油强,内盘与美盘油脂弱的短线特征在近几日依然较为明显,三地油脂的短线走势分化依然较为严重。建议密切关注美国今天晚间农业部报告对美盘油脂商品的短线走势影响程度。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有,短线多单谨慎持有,马盘棕榈油11月继续关注在60天均线阻挡位置的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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