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Global Markets Analysis – 11 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.09.2017周一美盘豆油出现回落整理迹象内盘马盘油脂商品反手短空

上周五晚间,美盘豆油12月合约,期价长阴下坠——我们3天来担忧的变盘信号突然出现。在上周报告中我们屡次提到过,美盘豆油在对7月28日前高点突破之后却始终不能“远离”(期价在前高位置连续3天不再上涨,仅“毛刺”突破),如果始终在前高点技术位置徘徊震荡,时间一久势必会吸引空头主力的阻击—–果然,在上周五空头主力的逢高打压以及多头逢高减仓盘双重作用力下,期价出现了下跌,美豆油的回落调整行情又开始出现苗头,我们暂时以短空的思维观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,在上周的整体表现上本来就不尽人意,期价始终保持不死不活的“横盘波动”疲软状态,盘中多头主力拉升意愿不强烈,这跟近段时间中国国内人民币大幅升值有密切关系,因此上内盘多头主力选择了临阵退缩。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,上周马盘棕榈油反弹上行走势良好,期价始终保持震荡盘升态势,并且在上周四时候创出新高点2796令吉特,该期价为今年后半年来最高点。在我们报告中已经连续三天建议逢高多单平仓及时兑现出局,相信散户朋友已经有充足的时间完成了此操作。

小结:考虑到纽约原油美盘豆油上周五晚间的阴K线下跌,恐将影响到大陆内盘马盘油脂商品的下周表现。甚至不排除前期反弹上行走势已经告一段落,根据当前油脂商品市场变化频率节奏较快,我们也将操作思路转换到短空观点上来,紧紧追随市场运行轨迹。具体操作:多单平仓完毕的散户朋友今天周一盘中可反手空单进场尝试,后市短线角度的回落调整序幕恐将拉开。

[SUMMARY]
• As US crude oil and soybean oil dropped on last Friday, they might affect the performances on China edible oils and Malaysian edible oils next week.
• The reversal of global edible oils might be formed, according to the movements of global edible oils are speeding up.
• We turn our mindset to short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders who already close-out all long positions might initiate short positions on Monday.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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