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Global Markets Analysis – 12 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.04.2016 周二 油脂类商品回落整理短线走势延续中

美盘油脂类商品走势怪异,美黄豆连短线反弹上行,美豆油5月回落整理,二者的反向运行互相牵扯纠结,抑制了豆油下探的回落空间,虽然美盘豆油5月合约期价回调幅度较小,几乎呈十字星抵抗整理,但从盘面观察,美盘豆油仍未调整结束。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,豆油强势抵抗整理,期价出现较大的反复,棕榈油小幅滑落,短线走势略弱于豆油。整体内盘油脂商品呈现出以时间换空间的抵抗性回落调整走势,在中长线大周期角度的看反转与小周期的短线回落整理二者之间,盘面出现别劲的分力现象,我们暂时仍以短线的价格运行轨迹为主要操作思路,仍以强势的回落整理观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,该品种的短线回落整理走势较为流畅,基本符合我们的预期,期价呈下坠式回落下方均线,短线的调整走势延续中。马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)昨日公布数据显示: 3月份马来西亚棕榈油产量环比提高16.9%,棕榈油库存环比下降13.1%,3月份出口量环比提高22.9%。马来西亚棕榈油产量提高与令吉特汇率走强是当前马盘棕榈油期价下跌的主要内因。后市短线我们继续短空思路对待。

小结:油脂类商品整体短线的回落整理走势延续,后市我们继续保持短空思路不变,等待下方真正的支撑位置出现。个人观点认为操作上:前期高位反手空单继续持有,密切关注后市盘中具体表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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