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Global Markets Analysis – 12 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.04.2017 周三 美国报告数据利空 油脂类商品在吸收消化该影响

昨日周二晚间,美国农业部月度供需报告出炉:2016–2017年度全球大豆期末库存为8741万吨,高于3月份预估的8282万吨。其中美国本土大豆期末库存为4.45亿蒲式耳,高于3月份预测的4.35亿蒲式耳。美国大豆2016-2017年度出口量为20.25亿蒲式耳,预测值与3月份持平。美国农业部将巴西大豆产量预测值调高至1.11亿吨,高于上月预测的1.08亿吨。将阿根廷大豆产量从3月份预测的5550万吨上调到5600万吨。美国农业部预测数据显示,2016-2017年度中国大豆进口量预计达到8655万吨,高于早先预测的8531万吨。从本次报告整体分析可知—数据报告依旧利空成分较多。受利空数据影响,昨日周二晚间美黄豆连曾一度下跌创近期新低,终盘以带下影线的小阳十字星收盘。美盘豆油5月合约期价小幅下跌,终盘以略带下挫性质的小阴K线收盘。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今日周三盘中受美国农业部最新报告利空情绪影响,盘中出现下坠性质下跌,短线后市走势有待吸收消化利空情绪影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,同样受美盘内盘油脂商品利空氛围影响出现期价下跌,今天周三盘中阴K线表现,受马来西亚国内棕榈油产量增加与库存增加不利影响,马盘棕榈短线也呈现下探走势,考虑到马来西亚出口数据良好,恐将抑制下跌幅度。

小结:美国农业部昨日晚间农业部最新报告出炉,具体数据呈利空性质。全球油脂商品受此影响,今日盘中期价大都出现下挫,报告公布后,后市油脂类商品短线走势将继续吸收消化基本面的不利因素,我们保持谨慎的下探寻支撑观点对待,由于中线角度本波下挫已经延续好久,我们依旧不把下探幅度看的很深,潜意识中依旧保持超跌之后存在反弹观点不变。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,仅仅内心深处多一份谨慎态度。继续关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• Report released by USDA indicates bearish figures.
• Global edible oils continue to decline as the market digests bearish factors.
• Maintaining our view that the downside remains limited, we hold the outlook of a possible rebound.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue holding long position but with high caution.
• We shall pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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