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Global Markets Analysis – 12 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.12 周二 关注晚间美盘农业部月度供需报告

美国中西部地区天气状况良好,对大豆生长有利,昨晚又出现降雨,美盘大豆和美盘豆油双双下跌,其中美豆油12月合约技术破位后,期价延续疲软态势下探,终盘以中阴下跌收盘,再创新低。今日周二晚间美国农业部月度供需报告将发布,市场走势将围绕预测数据展开,市场不确定性较大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,在上周五技术破位后,昨日低开低走盘中出现放量重挫,终盘以大阴K线下跌收盘,市场下探行情延续中。今天早盘低开高走,由于昨日跌幅巨大 ,今天将在长阴K线旁出现小幅反复。

大陆内盘油脂类商品,昨天我们提到过豆油和棕榈油1501合约走势怪异,在美盘和马盘均技术破位后,仅留内盘油脂商品做抵抗状不下破7月23日前低。昨日我们保持对这种抵抗性的成效保持怀疑态度,果然在今天早盘,二品种跳空低开,一跃而下跌破前低,至此全球油脂类商品技术走势归于相同。

小结:油脂类商品在弱势格局下继续保持下行态势,短线的下探寻支撑行情延续中。技术信号上隐隐出现底背离初步迹象。个人看法是在具体操作上:由于今天晚间美盘将有报告公布,市场不确定因素较大,稳健操作者继续场外观望。短线激进操作者昨日短空操作模式为日内当天短线交易行为,日内平仓后,今天也场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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