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Global Markets Analysis – 12 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.12.2014 周五 美原油下挫 美豆油横盘

昨日晚间美原油连中阴下跌,继续延续前期中短线的下行走势,并且盘中创新低58.96美元,其动向就如我们前期所预测的一样直奔50.00美元而去感觉。国际原油背后的经济因素、政治因素、地缘因素、抢占份额博弈因素等等依然较为明显,这对原油市场的后市走势有直接的影响。美原油的短线下挫仍延续中。

纯油脂类商品情况就略有不同,虽存在生物燃油替代作用受国际原油下跌影响外,纯油脂类商品基本面上不存在上面各类因素的影响。特别是美豆油,在供应面情况基本明朗后,当前主要问题是在需求面情况何时能改善?因此在美原油惯性下挫时候,昨日晚间美豆油不为所动,依旧保持横盘整理状态。抛开所有基本面情况,但从技术面观察,美盘豆油1月合约仍然在长期趋势线31.00一线(上下误差2点)有一定支撑。

在美盘豆油变化不大情况下,大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油继续保持下探中的抵抗震荡,期价依然小幅波动变化不大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日盘中略有走高上攻欲望较强,今天早盘期价位于60天线阻挡处徘徊,整体来说仍处于上下二技术位之间运行。

小结:前期我们报告中提到过,美原油是今年6月份才开始出现的明显下跌,截止到今天中线的下行行情仍未完结。而农产品类油脂商品是远早于原油就已经开始中线下跌,调整的时间上要比美原油充分的多,由于二者节凑上的差异,农产品油脂类商品存在被动型跟随心理,在恐慌情绪稍微缓解时候,豆油与棕榈油会率先企稳。考虑到由于美原油下方何处支撑的不确定性,也令美盘豆油左右为难。在此种情况下,我们建议前几日空单适当逢低减仓也是没办法的办法,个人建议出来透口气观望观望当属明智之举。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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