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Global Markets Analysis – 12 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.01.2016 周二 油脂商品短线下挫整理进行中

昨日周一晚间,美盘豆油3月合约,中阴下跌,期价下破60天均线。今天周二亚洲电子盘中期价运行在29.30一线,技术上观察,正好回抽到前高顶端的成交密集区位置,该位置在理论上应该有一定的支撑力度。若该位置支撑不住,则期价会下滑到日K线图表上的短线的上升趋势线位置-2015年8月24日低点- 9月21日低点-11月16日低点的连线(低点的连线是上升趋势线),大概趋势线的支撑位置在28.10左右。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,在美盘豆油下挫疲软走势下,内盘油脂商品也追随性走低,昨日与今日的期价下跌,令期价也来到下方的60天均线位置,目前观察短线情况不妙,期价有下破60天均线的可能,依然保持短线看淡观点。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日周一盘中期价大幅波动,多空主力在马棕榈60天均线位置争夺,终盘以空头主力胜利,终盘以带上下影响的中阴K线收盘。今天周二早盘,受到美盘与内盘油脂商品以及美盘原油走弱影响,马棕榈3月跳空低开,期价延续昨日的下跌态势走低,短空回落观点不变。

小结:中国股票市场近几日的大跌,以及国际原油的持续疲软,令全球大宗商品承压严重。油脂类商品的短线下挫整理态势延续中,我们继续保持短空思维看待。观点认为操作上:我们这波短线多单逢高出局后,保持看空不做空的操作思维,放弃本波短线操作模式而在场外观望。中长线多单继续持仓不动(中长线横盘大区间震荡筑大底;短线期价下挫回抽整理),建议密切关注本波的下挫幅度到底有多大。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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