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Global Markets Analysis – 12 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.07.2017周三油脂类商品继续在前高一线震荡徘徊

美盘豆油12月合约,在本周初上破前高34.00之后,当前期价维持在上方运行。由于突破之后的拉升距离尚不够远(今天周三亚洲电子盘期价波动震荡在34.15一线),所以我们内心的那份谨慎还应该保持—–继续以短多前提观点下谨慎心态对待。今日周三晚间美国农业部将公布7月份供需报告(北京时间周四凌晨),谨防报告内容对短线行情产生不利波动。

中国大陆三大油脂商品—–菜籽油当前库存为150万吨左右,这一数值比2016年的库存高峰值600万吨下降很大。豆油当前商业库存为125万吨左右,也比峰值时期的147万吨下降22万吨。国内棕榈油当前库存为43万吨左右,较峰值157万吨下降117万吨。目前中国大陆油脂商品总库存为236万吨,较去年峰值的904万吨下降668万吨。从这几组数据分析可以看出——内盘的总供给端呈现萎缩状态,这从一个侧面基本支持我们中长期看涨观点。对于当前内盘豆油棕榈油短线行情角度来说,从6月22日以来的本部短线反弹行情中低位多单的获利盘已经有了一定积累,所以防止短线走势变盘是我们重中之重,特别是考虑到美盘大豆“井喷式”垂直上涨拔高,虽然高点我们尚不能确定,但防备之心我们这2日开始提高到一个高度上来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周二盘中期价突破5月18日高点2605令吉,但尾盘冲高回落,终盘以高开低走的中阴K线收盘——虽然短线多日阳K线之后仅仅出现一根阴K线,尚不能真正确定反弹走势终结—-但我们内心中那份谨慎心态还是时时要提醒散户朋友。

小结:油脂类商品短线“天气炒作”延续中,由于7月份是美国大豆开花期,对雨水要求强烈,恰值美国中西部气温炎热干燥,当前市场对美大豆生长优良率的担忧情绪加剧,这从一个角度支持了美盘黄豆连的大幅飙涨。但根据我们以往经验——既然是天气炒作,就带有人为情绪影响,突然而降的一场大雨,就能把该利多情绪击碎。所以我们在短线短多前提不变情况下,继续保持应对盘面出现不利情况下的另一手心理准备。具体操作上:在短线反弹动能未出现明显衰竭前,短线多单继续持有。我们建议的内心中的那份“逢高兑现多单”情怀仍不能丢失。(中长线看多但短线需谨慎)。

[SUMMARY]
• Weather factor continues to affect trading sentiment of edible oils.
• With central and western regions of the US experiencing dry climate, fear in the market intensifies and pushes US soybean oil higher.
• Experience tells us that bullish sentiment that is precipitated by weather plays may be reversed by a minor change in climate.
• We maintain a short-term long outlook but also prepare for possible unfavourable conditions.

[ACTION]
• Until the short-term rebound shows apparent sign of fatigue, traders may retain long position.
• Traders are advised to always be ready to take profits when prices are substantially high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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