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Global Markets Analysis – 12 May 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

5.12周一 今天内盘商品多头人气有所凝聚

周一早盘,大陆内盘前期下跌幅度较大的品种,包括橡胶 焦炭 螺纹钢 玻璃 PTA等多数品种上,均出现人气凝聚,早盘以红盘报收。金属铜前期就一直走势较强,早盘又中阳上涨,更是创出近期新高。

我们更为关心的油脂类商品,周一早盘虽未出现明显上涨,但下方的回落空间被缩窄,期价呈现横盘走势, 值得我们需要警惕的是, 这种横盘现象不会持续很久,经过上周的主动回落,下方支撑存在被夯实。 在具体节奏上当前存在不明晰情况,是再猛下蹲急挫一下再上行?还是右侧横盘后就直接转强? 这2种短线走势都存在可能。

对于马盘毛棕榈油来说,上周五以带上下影线的小红阳十字报收,2560一线多头抵抗作用明显,周一早盘又继续红盘横盘, 整体短线存在拒绝深度下挫,当前呈现横盘状态。

美盘黄豆出现转强迹象, 美豆油仍未出现走强,止跌企稳迹象还不明显, 但值得我们注意的是,既然前期是主动下跌回落,继而转为横盘走势,这本身信号语言就略带走强含义,密切关注该品种的后市走势。

小结: 油脂商品短线出现横盘走势,期价呈阴阳K线右横, 短线需要方向性选择要求,在未出现明显技术信号前,稳健操作者继续观望, 激进短空操作者我们昨天提到不再建议再继续放空操作。 波段操作者可于盘中下探急挫时候,少量多单进场尝试, 待技术转强信号出现后再重仓进场。 后市存在技术转强走势,并且变盘时间就在本周。同时密切关注美盘豆油的指引动作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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