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Global Markets Analysis – 12 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.05.2017 周五 USDA MPOB两份数据报告出炉后 油脂类商品短线走势出现分化 棕榈油强 美豆油弱

美国农业部周三晚间报告出炉后,美豆油7月合约中阴下跌,期价在60天均线上方仅维持了2个交易日,并且未形成有效的快速拔高脱离该技术位置——果然遭到盘中空头主力的阻挡。对此我们心中早有提前预警。当前美盘豆油7月合约期价形成 “上有60天均线阻挡,下有5日10日短期均线支撑”,该位置的均线系统正趋于“粘合”状态。虽然我们不往下看空多少空间,但美豆油的疲软表现仍需要我们保持谨慎态度对待,美豆油美大豆存在短线走弱苗头。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,豆油1709合约期价整体变化不大,呈小幅波动震荡反弹走势,而棕榈油1709合约昨日周四午后盘中突然长阳飙涨(日涨幅2.7%作用),一举突破日K线图表上方60日均线的技术阻挡,昨天内盘棕榈油的表现可圈可点—–成为油脂类商品反弹走势的领头羊,第一个扛起了反弹大旗。内盘棕榈油强豆油弱的盘面特征仍在延续中。

马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)发布的最新数据显示:4月份棕榈油产量为155万吨,低于市场预期的159万吨。4月份棕榈油库存为160万吨,该数据也低于市场预期的165万吨。船运调查机构ITS发布数据显示,2017年5月1—10日马来西亚棕榈油出口量为359.355吨,环比提高15%——从整体马来西亚政府公布的数据分析,本次报告中棕榈油产量 库存均低于市场预期,而棕榈油出口数据强劲,该报告呈现利多性质。马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,昨日周四盘中受利多情绪影响,以及内盘棕榈油上涨的提振作用——马棕榈油7月昨日也长阳报收,创近2月来新高点,前期低位酝酿的反弹拐点走势较为明显,由于昨日的盘中突然发力之后,今日盘中可能出现回落洗盘现象(长阳K线 右上角小阴表现)。

小结:美国马来西亚数据报告出炉后,全球油脂类商品短线走势出现分化——美豆油弱内盘马盘油脂强,豆油弱棕榈强的盘面特征较为明显。对于这种分化走势我们仍需保持谨慎心态,“一颗红心两手准备”操盘心态仍不可丢弃。具体操作上:昨日建议的多单逢高兑现了结出局的散户朋友,出局后可场外暂时观望一下(到底棕榈油提振豆油,还是美豆油拖累棕榈油?)。而未完全出场的散户朋友,可今天周五盘中继续逢高减持多单,令手中多单呈轻单状态,后市短线继续关注美盘豆油疲软的程度如何?。总体思想上——我们继续保持中线拐点反弹观点不变前提下,但需要谨防美盘豆油的短线角度的下挫可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Following the release of US and Malaysia agricultural data report, global edible oils move in different direction: US soybean oil weakens; China and Malaysia edible oils strengthen.
• This divergence is a cause for concern and caution among traders.
• Outlook: a rebound in the medium term but prepare for a possible short-term downtrend of US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who have liquidated long positions may remain on the sideline at the moment.
• Traders who still hold long positions may reduce those positions when prices are high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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