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Global Markets Analysis – 12 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.10.2014 周日 美盘和马盘 重要报告出炉 (06.10.2014 – 10.10.2014)

华盛顿10月10日消息,美国农业部(USDA)周五公布报告:其中美国大豆单产预计为47.1蒲式耳/英亩,比上月报告高出0.5蒲式耳/英亩,大豆总产量预计能达到创纪录的39.30亿蒲式耳。比上月调高1400万蒲式耳。收获面积预计为8340万英亩,比上月下调70万英亩。2014/2015年度美国大豆出口与压榨数据未变,大豆期末库存预计为4.5亿蒲式耳,比上月下调2500万蒲式耳。2014/2015全球油籽产量预计为5.284亿吨,比上月高出40万吨。全球油籽期末库存预计为1.036亿吨,比上年增长29个百分点。从报告内容分析可以看出,虽利空利多内容均有,但整体报告仍以偏空为主。周五晚间美盘黄豆和美豆油再次出现下跌,其中豆油以带下影线的中阴K线收盘,从该品种持仓报告分析,据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)周五发布的持仓报告显示,截止10月7日的一周,投机基金在CBOT豆油期货以及期权部位持有净多单3869手,相比之下,一周前为净空单5988手,明显可以看出,过去一个月来,基金持续减持豆油期货的空头部位。这种盘面的丝微变化要引起我们的注意。

马来西亚周五也有报告公布,马棕榈油10月1日 – 10日出口下滑18.9个百分点至395.532吨。9月底库存上涨1.8% 至18个月以来高位209万吨。从报告分析看出:此前9月份的出口强劲势头,在10月初时间段意外出现下滑,令海外市场对棕榈油需求的担忧加剧,马盘毛棕榈油基准12月下跌压力加大,周五盘中曾一度出现下跌。此后时间,马来西亚政府宣布把棕榈油出口零关税优惠政策延长至12月份,毛棕榈油基准12月期价略有回升。

本周油脂类商品,大陆内盘、马盘和美盘的主力合约均呈现出窄幅震荡短线走势,多空主力交投均趋于谨慎,整体期价小幅波动变化不大。在周五重要报告内容明了后,该短线局面恐将被打破,对于本次报告对下周盘面的影响,成为我们下周初关注的焦点,考虑到本次报告更多表现为利空因素,谨防下周初对油脂类商品带来下跌压力。从中长期大角度观点来说,我们对油脂商品中长期下行筑大底观点保持不变,但短线上进入10月份美盘的最后收割期,任何的利空消息影响下的下跌走势,我们都需要保持谨慎。美盘的本次筑大底过程显得尤为漫长,因此我们在短线操作上首先保持谨慎,仍然保持从大周期角度来分析研判,从小周期细节上来具体操作,以规避没必要的风险。当前大角度的长线趋势性操作还不到完美时候,市场正运行到大拐点尾声阶段,按照原中线下降趋势继续追空操作已经不宜,但按照预测的新反转趋势操作也不到最佳时刻。在这个最微妙最尴尬的时候,我们且先把目光放在更为细微的微观层面,暂时忽略宏观角度的具体操作。下周初个人观点是:密切关注本次报告对全球油脂商品的影响,若由于利空因素对短线盘面带来下挫压力,前期短线反弹多单可平仓了结。已经平仓场外观望的交易者密切关注本次利空对盘面的影响力度,耐心等待长线角度新的进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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