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Global Markets Analysis – 12 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.10.2015 周一 大陆内盘油脂商品多单继续持有;马盘操作者暂时场外观望

美国农业部上周五(10月9日)的报告已经出炉,数据显示有出人意料的地方。其中,美国农业部大幅调低大豆收获面积,2015/2016年度美国大豆收获面积为8240万英亩,比9月份的预测值少了110万英亩,也低于2014/2015年度8260万英亩。而大豆单产量小幅调高0.1蒲式耳/英亩,因此美国大豆总产量数据为38.88亿蒲式耳,比9月份预测值降低4700万蒲式耳。美国农业部还把2015/2016年度大豆期末库存下调至4.25亿蒲式耳,较上月预估值降低2500万蒲式耳。从报告数据分析:收获面积下调;期末总库存下调;大豆总产量整体数字降低。本次报告呈现利多。上周五美盘黄大豆连与美豆油12月合约呈十字星状整理,盘中走势不明显。但今天周一的亚洲早盘,美盘豆油12月红盘中阳上涨,期价站60天均线之上,表明上破均线的技术能量仍存。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一上午盘表现抢眼,早盘高开高走,盘中呈长阳上涨走势,涨幅均在2.70%左右,期价一举突破日图表上60天均线的技术阻挡,率先给出油脂商品上破均线的短线反弹的方向指引,基本符合我们上周末预测的反弹上行预期。对内盘豆油与棕榈油1601合约的后市短线,个人继续保持看高一线。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在连续4天快速阴跌之后,冲高回落整理走势已经非常清晰,虽然今天周一早盘追随美盘与大陆内盘油脂商品出现跳空高开走高现象,但前期的冲高回落走势并未得到技术上的完全逆转,该品种独立走特征势行情仍较为明显,建议继续保持对该品种短线上的回落整理观点不变。

小结:美国农业部报告呈利多性质,美盘大豆与豆油仍存在反弹动能。大陆内盘油脂商品今天率先发力上涨,短线的反弹上行走势延续中。马盘毛棕榈油受马来西亚令吉特汇率坚挺影响出现走低,短线走势出现与其它油脂商品不同步现象,个人保持对马棕榈反弹后的回落整理观点不变,下方回落空间多大是我们关注的焦点。观点认为大陆内盘油脂商品多单继续持仓不动。马盘棕榈油短线追空不宜,短多更不宜,继续保持上周多单平仓之后的暂时场外观望观点。( 实在耐不住寂寞的短线激进操作者,可建议盘中逢高短空)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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