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Global Markets Analysis – 12 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.12 周五 美国农业部报告出炉

密切关注的美国农业部报告数据终于在9月11日晚间出炉,其中我们较为关注的美国2014-2015年度大豆单产数据为46.6蒲式耳/英亩,高于上月所预测的45.4蒲式耳/英亩。2014-2015年度美国大豆总产量预期将达到39.13亿蒲式耳,同样高于上月所预测的38.16蒲式耳。从这份报告可以看出:美国大豆单产和总产量预测值均为创记录的高点,报告性质属于严重利空。

从美盘昨日晚间盘面表现来看,美盘大豆和美盘豆油期价均有所下跌,但值得注意的是,在严重利空报告影响下,期价下挫的幅度却非常小,表明部分投资人士早已提前认同此报告内容,利空消息有被提前消化的嫌疑。另据可靠传闻(路透社9月12日报道)中国下周一将与美国签署大豆购买协议(金额不详),受此利多消息影响,今天早盘美大豆和美豆油亚洲电子盘二品种期价均从低位上涨回升。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日低开高走以带长下影线的中阳收盘,期价受10日均线支撑有效,(连续几天空头打压都未曾跌破)表明多头反弹主力抵抗态度坚决,昨日的中阳上涨并创反弹以来新高2072令吉,令短线反弹走势再次出现转机。

大陆内盘油脂商品更是微妙,豆油和棕榈油1501合约在原横向盘整区间的下沿位置,“欲破不破”?( 箱体下沿技术位如果不能有效击破,空单是不能进场的)。今天周五早盘,豆油和棕榈油1501合约双双低开高走,期价再次回到原横盘整理的箱体平台内,行情走势令人深思。

小结:本周马盘和美盘两大重要报告同时公布完毕,正如“靴子落地”,令市场投资人士悬着的心终于趋于安稳。从马盘和美盘油脂商品走势上观察,二者出现了相同的盘面语言-受利空消息影响的力度在逐步减弱(以前是一丝丝利空就足以令期价大幅下挫)利多消息的影响力度开始增强。这点盘口语言要引起我们的注意。从今天内、外盘油脂商品走势我们看到,美盘已经再拒绝下挫,马盘在尽量延续前期的反弹,大陆内盘在验证箱体下沿的支撑效应。若三者能完全抵抗住本波利空消息的负面影响,则后市反弹行情的预期还是值得期待的。(毕竟美豆油已经跌到5年来的低点)个人看法是:利空消息公布完毕,油脂商品却止跌回升,令我们前期预期的反弹希望再次见到一丝曙光,大陆内盘箱体下沿未有效跌破,期价不能继续下挫,短空离场,激进者于箱体下沿少量进多。马盘毛棕榈油期价未被击破10均线的支撑,支撑继续有效,短线反弹行情存在延续可能,为规避报告利空带来的风险和建议已平的多单,可在少量接回。今天盘面的走势多头主力又一次给了我们看多的希望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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