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Global Markets Analysis – 12 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.09.2016 周一 内盘油脂商品期价;周一意外走低

美盘大豆小幅走高反弹延续中,美盘豆油12月横盘震荡4个交易日了,美豆油始终不给市场一个明确走势指引,令投资人内心略有烦躁,但我们仔细观察美盘油脂商品,短线的反弹上行走势还未遭到破坏,我们继续保持积聚人气后的反弹观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在得不到美盘豆油的明确指引后,今天周一早盘期价意外走低,其中豆油1701期价下挫幅度较大。对于内盘来说-今天9月12日周一,还有2天就是中国传统节日“中秋节”,大陆内盘9月15、16、17日放假三天,而18日又是周日休息,9月19日周一才开盘交易。今天内盘油脂商品期货市场出现一定的恐慌盘涌出,减仓下行的盘口语言表明-有部分短线多头平仓离场,以规避长假期市场风险,由于美盘豆油尚未完全走坏,我们再多观察2日。

今天9月12日周一是马来西亚“Hari Raya Haji”哈芝节,马盘期货市场因公共假期停盘一天。9月16日周五是马来西亚日将会停盘一天。

小结:本周内盘与马盘公共假期较多-内盘与马盘均只有3个交易日。今天内盘油脂商品意外期价疲软走低,不排除多头主力提前减仓来规避假期风险。另外,欧美市场上周经历了黑色星期五,今天亚洲市场开盘后担忧情绪依然在蔓延,日本、韩国、A股、港股均跳空低开,中国股票市场的大幅下跌也对期货市场带来不小震动,内盘期货市场所有大宗商品均以阴K线下跌。对于美盘油脂商品来说,特别是美盘豆油多日的犹豫徘徊震荡不前,也给内盘多头主力带来不利心理影响。单从美盘豆油来说,美盘豆油的反弹上行走势仍未遭到严重破坏(并未出现大的阴K线与阴吞阳走势),今天内盘油脂商品略有点“小题大做”嫌疑。我们暂且多观察观察, 以静制动方式装一下糊涂,看看美盘豆油后市短线到底如何指引?观点认为操作上:多单继续谨慎持有,待美盘真正出现走坏迹象再减持多单。

[ENGLISH SUMMARY]: There are fewer trading days this week, just three in both the Chinese and Malaysian markets. Prices of vegetable oil products unexpectedly slipped, possibly due to strong closing-out of long positions by big traders to mitigate risks that may arise during the public holidays. Separately, Asian markets including Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong on Monday extended last Friday’s major sell-off that was triggered in the U.S. and European markets, as fears continue to spread globally. China’s equities markets are jolting its futures markets, as all commodity futures registered shaded candlesticks. U.S. edible oil products, especially soybean oil that has been experiencing uncertain movements as of late, are dampening interest in long positions by big traders in the Chinese vegetable oil market. The upward reversal of U.S. soybean oil has not yet been severely disrupted, as indicated by a lack of a “bearish engulfing” signal. Opinion: Interest in long positions should remain, unless negative signs in the U.S. markets begin to materialize.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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