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Global Markets Analysis – 13 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周日 本周行情回顾

4月7日—4月11日当周 ,5个交易日,油脂商品出现分化走势,市场行情出现微妙变化。从美盘豆油来说,周初上扬周末回落,整体仍保持震荡上行态势,技术上未出现走坏迹象,即便周四周五出现期价回落,仍受多个均线支撑。仅仅回落到C浪上行通道的下轨处。下周不出现阴棒破下轨情形发生,则仍有继续上行空间。

马盘棕榈油前期就提到过,该品种拖累了整体油脂商品运行C浪的上行走势,由于该品种受60天线压力上冲不过,本周初主动出现回落,在周末时又收回部分失地,形成右侧横盘,形成短线不上不下的犹豫动作。由于该品种本周未出现延续4月3日金针探底后的明显反身动作,令整体油脂商品的多头接盘主力信心受挫,特别是大陆内盘棕榈油多头主力。单从马盘毛棕榈油来说,下周初若不出现明显下跌阴K出现,我们前期接盘多单仍继续持有,期待该品种的中阳向上走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品,是本周走势最为变化较大的品种,特别是内盘棕榈油,在周末最后一交易日,出现下破60天线的激烈动作,排除马盘毛棕榈油未给出上行指引的支持外,在内盘多头屡攻不下情况下,空头力量有所增强,在多头减仓和空头主动打压双重力量之下,短线意外的形成破位态势,下周初失地是否被收回,成为后市走势关键因素,该品种最为玄妙,截止到周五,该品种期价勉强收到3月25日低点6072 之上,以6080收盘,密切关注下周初盘面走势,以判断周五阴K线是走了极端还是C浪走势已经失败。

综述:虽然美盘保持C浪上行态势,但马盘迟迟不给B浪结束的反身动作,令大陆内盘油脂商品上行一段时间后,期价出现下挫,特别是内盘棕榈油下挫幅度超出技术范畴,密切关注下周初走势,以判断本周五下跌动作可靠性的真假。个人看法,马盘毛棕榈油前期接盘多单继续持有, 内盘豆油接盘多单继续持有, 内盘棕榈油接盘多单已经由盈利变为被套,下周初3月25日低点若被下破,则该品种多单止损出局。

另; 4月12日下午3时许,土地局同学因心脏病突发(心梗)去世,4月14周一上午我要参加葬礼,周一报告不能完成, 建议周一若遇突发行情请按本周日报告内容具体操作,特此抱歉。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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