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Global Markets Analysis – 13 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.04.2015 周一 短线考验前低的支撑力度进行中(略微显示有效)

国际油脂类商品受利空消息影响在上周出现短暂下挫,连续5个交易日下探寻求支撑。技术上观察:美盘豆油7月主力合约,从长期月K线图表角度来说,期价下探到长期上升趋势线位置(30.00左右),下方的下跌空间被封杀,期价已经连续几个月在该位置横盘震荡,长期上升趋势线对当前期价的技术支撑力度仍较强。短线角度的下跌仍不改变长期下行后酝酿筑大底的观点。近期受利空消息影响美盘大豆的下跌态势要强于美盘豆油,盘中短线观察美盘豆油7月合约,抵抗性回落整理的迹象依旧非常明显,在上周五时候美盘豆油7月红盘小阳K线收盘,今天周一亚洲电子早盘,期价再次红盘走强。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,截止到上周五时候,期价已经非常临近前期下方低点附近,今天周一早盘期价盘中出现走强,表明下方低点附近的技术支撑仍然有效,不排除多头主力在前低附近悄悄接盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月合约,上周短线走势属于先扬后抑,周一的发力中阳上行被随后的4个交易的快速回落而覆盖,到上周五4月10日时候,马盘毛棕榈油6月期价已经非常靠近下方的低点下沿位置,周五的红十字星K线收盘,表明短线出现止跌迹象,受美盘与大陆内盘周一早盘的外围市场走强影响,马盘毛棕榈油的下方空间也被封杀。

小结:美盘原油的50.00一线与美盘豆油的30.00一线,是个人长期以来密切关注的关键技术位,截止到目前为止,该长期上升趋势线的支撑位置的支撑力度依然较强。个人建议继续保持长线角度的震荡酝酿大底观点不变。从短线来说,虽上周油脂类商品再次出现快速回落来考验下方支撑,在未出现明显的下破前低技术走坏前,认为依旧以大周期震荡筑大底前提下的期价短线周期上反复回落下探整理观点看待。(大周期包含小周期;小周期形成大周期;小周期是细节;大周期是宏观)观点认为虽有长期图表上的关键技术位支撑,但当前基本面并不能支持技术层面的大幅走强,期价表现反复的震荡走势,此种情况下,中长线交易者接盘多单只能耐心谨慎持有不动。短线交易者可适当规避短线的期价反复而带来的风险,今天周一早盘油脂商品的再次走强,表明短线的震荡仍然延续中,在前低下沿附近空单离场,多单接盘,多单止损位就设置在前低下方X点,这样的操作上方空间非常大,而下方的止损空间非常小,风险报酬比要远大于4:1,认为这是给短线交易者最佳建议,当然也包括部分中线交易者。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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