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Global Markets Analysis – 13 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.04.2016 周三 美盘大豆与美盘豆油二者短线走势出现严重分化

美盘黄豆连连续2天长阳红盘上涨,期价短线反弹上行走势比较明显。美盘豆油5月合约,连续几日期价小幅下探回落整理,虽然豆油期价下挫幅度不是很大,但我们预期的回落整理行情进行中,昨日周二晚间,美豆油中阳下跌,后随黄豆连的走强,期价又部分收回,终盘以带下影线的小阴K线收盘,二者短线走势分化现象较为明显。美国农业部(USDA)将2015-2016年度美国大豆结转库存预估下调至4.45亿蒲式耳,低于3月预估的4.6亿蒲式耳,并且低于市场分析人士的评价预估值4.54亿蒲式耳,昨日周二晚间的报告利多于美盘大豆。与此同时,美盘原油的反弹上行与美盘豆油的小幅下挫整理,二者之间的短线走势也存在怪异的分化现象,这点也要引起我们适当的谨慎。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,纠结于美大豆与美豆油的分化走势,令内盘多空主力的分歧加剧,特别是内盘豆油1609合约,该品种内心更倾向追随美大豆走势,而棕榈油1609合约则跟随马盘棕榈以及美盘豆油的走势意图较为明显,内盘油脂商品抵抗性整理进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,当前短线走势是最标准的,基本上完全符合我们的预期情况-期价冲高到2793令吉特高位后,冲高回落整理,截止到今天已经连续6个交易日期价下挫,短线的回落整理走势较为明显,在下方未出现较为明显的技术支撑前,我们继续短空思路对待。

小结:美黄豆与美豆油期价呈南辕北辙走势,造成全球油脂类商品短线走势略有分化,但整体来说除了美黄豆连存在反弹上行欲望之外,其他油脂类商品:美豆油 内盘油脂商品、马盘棕榈油短线的回落整理走势仍可认为在进行中,未回落整理结束前(未出现较低价位的技术支撑前),我们原则上的多单不会急于进场接盘。 建议继续耐心等待真正的回落结束。观点认为具体操作上:前期短线空单继续持有, 其中马盘棕榈油6月,可考虑部分空单适当逢低减持,谨慎操作一下,以避免受内盘与美盘大豆不利走势的间接影响。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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