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Global Markets Analysis – 13 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.04.2017 周四 美黄豆连出现蠢蠢欲动反弹动作 耐心等待美豆油后续表现

美国农业部4.11日周二公布报告当晚,美黄豆连以长下影线下探急挫,终盘以十字星的小阳K线收复失地。昨日4.12日周三盘中期价继续红盘走强上涨,今天4.13日周四亚洲电子盘期价持续中阳走高,短线观察美大豆期价—-自中线角度的下挫走势演变为低位横盘之后,此刻出现反弹拐点雏形,后市存在蠢蠢欲动的反弹动作技术走强要求。美盘豆油5月合约,虽然期价不像美大豆那样明显,但在重大利空报告后—–期价并未出现多大跌幅(基本符合我们的预期),说明下方回落空间被封杀,继续耐心等待走强机会的到来。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709 主力合约,昨日周三盘中受利空消息影响,豆油棕榈油双双期价下挫急跌,终盘均以中阴K线下跌收盘,今天周四盘面期价翻红,短线出现止跌苗头,后市,我们继续保持超跌之后的下探筑底观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日周三盘面追随美盘内盘油脂商品走弱,但下挫幅度不大,终盘仅以小阴K线收盘。今日周四早盘小阳K线表现,昨日的跌幅被渐渐收回。继续保持中线角度回落整理的尾声阶段看待。

小结:美国农业部利空报告出炉后,全球油脂类商品正在吸收消化该利空层面影响。考虑到前期国际原油市场持续反弹走势的提振作用,后市油脂类商品的下挫空间不会很大。再考虑到本波中线角度的回落整理已经持续了很长时间,我们继续保持下探寻底观点不变。操作上:前期多单继续持有,部分无仓散户朋友待美盘豆油出现“反身”走强时刻,建议第一时间,部分多单可逢低进场补仓试盘操作的心理准备(后市下挫空间有限,反弹空间无限)。

[SUMMARY]
• USDA report boosts bearish sentiment on global edible oils.
• With the rebound of crude oil extending, the downside of edible oils remains limited.
• Considering the fact that the short-term correction has gone on for a while, we continue to seek the low point.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.
• Retail traders without position may prepare to go long as soon as US soybean oil shows any sign of a rebound.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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