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Global Markets Analysis – 13 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.13日 周三 报告公布后 美盘大幅度波动

昨日周二晚间美国农业部发布的月度供需报告在具体早晨得到落实,美黄大豆2014/2015年度结转库存预估为4.3亿蒲式耳,较上次报告预估值上调1500万蒲式耳,且高于分析师预估的4.14亿蒲式耳。美国大豆今年产量上调为38.16亿蒲式耳。其中的单产预估值为45.4蒲式耳,单产低于前期市场预估值。从本报告分析,库存增加和总产量增加报告利空;单产略有下调利多。报告公布后,美盘大豆和豆油出现急挫,其中美豆油12月见新低34.47,后又迅速探底回升中阳报收于35.96,并且带长下影线,此表现存在利空出尽效应。若单按照周二晚间美豆油急跌急涨的表现,存在探底初步成功的迹象,但今天周三早上亚洲电子盘的大幅度低开,又把该迹象毁于无形,令短线走势处于迷茫当中,今天周三晚间美盘豆油的具体走势就成为关键。

周三上午,大陆内盘和马盘油脂类商品被美盘走势所迷惑,更多的表现为十字星小幅窄幅震荡,成交量萎缩,多空主力交投清淡,无操作意义,均等待美盘更为明确的指引。

小结:昨日就提到过美国农业部公布报告前不确定因素较多,行情走势风险加剧。美盘豆油12月,昨日晚间报告公布后出现大幅度波动,具体走势表现为先急跌后再下探回升,是否下探成功尚不明确(电子盘干扰了),密切关注今日晚间美盘豆油的具体表现对后市短线的指导作用。 个人看法是:今天白天暂停一切操作,场外观望,仔细观察美盘豆油晚间到底何种走势?

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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