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Global Markets Analysis – 13 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.12.2017周三美国农业部公布12月份供需报告

美国时间12月12日周二(北京时间12月13日凌晨1点45分),美国农业部公布了12月供需报告(2017年终报告)。美国2017/18年度大豆期末库存预估为4.45亿蒲式耳,11月份预估值为4.25亿蒲式耳。美国2017/18年度美国大豆收割面积预估为8950万英亩,11月份预估值为8950万英亩。美国2017/18年度大豆单产为49.5蒲式耳/英亩,11月份预估值为49.5蒲式耳/英亩。美国2017/18年度大豆总产量预估为44.25亿蒲式耳,11月份预估值为44.25亿蒲式耳——-从报告内容显示,收割面积单产总产量均保持不变,年末库存略有上调(报告呈中性)。此前市场分析人士普遍对本次报告带利空悲观情绪预期(恐上调巴西大豆产量,以及对阿根廷天气担忧情绪缓解)。美盘豆油1月合约,在北京时间凌晨1点45分,期价红盘上涨,一改此前阴K线表现。截止到当前(凌晨3点),美盘豆油中阳K线红盘表现——美豆油“两阳夹一阴”K线组合,我们继续短多观点看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约(或1801),昨日周二盘面小阳K线上涨表现,期价止跌企稳后右侧横盘,下方下跌空间收窄,今日周三继续短多观点对待。

马来西亚棕榈油局12月12日发布公告,11月末马来西亚棕榈油期末库存环比上升16%至两年来高位256万吨,当月出口下降11.9%至135万吨,11月份产量下降3.3%至194万吨。从报告分析:马来西亚棕榈油库存上升,而棕榈油出口下滑(这也是此前马盘棕榈油持续超跌的主要原因所在),但市场分析人士考虑到马来西亚棕榈油产量也出现下降,部分人士视为利多消息“表明马来西亚棕榈油的产量高峰期已经过去”。对于今天马盘毛棕榈油基准2月来说,利空情绪出尽,恐今天周三开盘期价会出现一定程度上涨。

小结:美盘豆油低位拐点之后的反弹上行走势延续中,两阳夹一阴K线组合的出现,表明后市短线仍存在反弹动能,我们继续短多观点对待,内盘马盘油脂商品多头主力做多信心将被提振。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Rebound of US soybean oil extends, as indicated by technical signals.
• Long interest on China and Malaysia edible oil may be boosted.
• We maintain a short-term long outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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