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Global Markets Analysis – 13 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong

13.01.2015 周二 美盘豆油箱体上沿再次出现阻挡

周一晚些时间,美国农业部发布1月份供需报告:2014/2015年度美国大豆产量预测数据上调到39.69亿蒲式耳,高于市场预期值。美国大豆期末库存数据保持不变,仍为4.1亿蒲式耳,高于市场预期的4.02亿蒲式耳。同时上调巴西大豆产量,从12月份的9400万吨,上调到创纪录的9550万吨。报告数据分析,明显利空成分较大。致使昨日晚间美国大豆和豆油双双暴跌,其中美豆油3月合约盘中见高点34.00后 ,长阴下跌,箱体上沿再次成为技术阻挡位,期价上破箱体的期待破灭。短线上继续运行回箱体内。



小结:美盘豆油短线走势基本明确,昨日晚间的暴跌,令箱体上沿成为技术阻挡位。 短线再次下挫不可避免。对全球油脂商品拖累明显。个人观点认为行情明朗后,在 内盘与马盘前期接盘的短线多单全部平仓出局。建议中长线激进操作者多单可箱体下沿位置作为相应止损位谨慎持有而中长线稳健操作者原计划在美盘豆油突破34.00一线跟进多单操作计划终止。短线观点认为再次转为看淡.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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