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Global Markets Analysis – 13 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.01.2015 周二 美盘豆油箱体上沿再次出现阻挡

周一晚些时间,美国农业部发布1月份供需报告:2014/2015年度美国大豆产量预测数据上调到39.69亿蒲式耳,高于市场预期值。美国大豆期末库存数据保持不变,仍为4.1亿蒲式耳,高于市场预期的4.02亿蒲式耳。同时上调巴西大豆产量,从12月份的9400万吨,上调到创纪录的9550万吨。报告数据分析,明显利空成分较大。致使昨日晚间美国大豆和豆油双双暴跌,其中美豆油3月合约盘中见高点34.00后 ,长阴下跌,箱体上沿再次成为技术阻挡位,期价上破箱体的期待破灭。短线上继续运行回箱体内。

受美盘豆油下跌影响,在美豆油3月走势清晰后,周二大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1505合约,早盘双双低开低走,短线再次出现下挫走势。

马来西亚方面情况,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)12日消息:马来西亚12月份棕榈油产量为136.4万吨,比11月份的175万吨,产量降低22%。同时12月份库存为201.3万吨,比11月份的228万吨降低12个百分点。马盘基本面数据呈现利多,但由于美盘豆油昨晚的暴跌,恐今天周二早盘,马毛棕榈油基准3月开盘下跌。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势基本明确,昨日晚间的暴跌,令箱体上沿成为技术阻挡位。 短线再次下挫不可避免。对全球油脂商品拖累明显。个人观点认为行情明朗后,在 内盘与马盘前期接盘的短线多单全部平仓出局。建议中长线激进操作者多单可箱体下沿位置作为相应止损位谨慎持有而中长线稳健操作者原计划在美盘豆油突破34.00一线跟进多单操作计划终止。短线观点认为再次转为看淡.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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