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Global Markets Analysis – 13 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.01.2015 周三 油脂类商品短线继续保持观望

美盘豆油3月合约,期价回抽确认的下挫整理走势延续中,当前期价已经处于60天均线下方,是否要真的回落到日K线图表上的短线上升趋势线位置?我们还不能确定这点(该位置昨天我们提到为过28.10一线)。这个点位为本波回落的最大目标点位。但市场是否真能回落到该技术位置,我们继续保持观望态度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,前期抵抗性回落,终于抵挡不住美盘豆油的持续疲软,令内盘油脂商品也出现不同程度的期价下滑,当前期价回落到60天均线位置,是否能支撑得住,就要看美盘豆油的市场具体表现了。密切关注美盘豆油短线动向,操作上保持观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,近2日期价从60天均线上掉了下来,原先盘中的多头主力抵抗行为宣告失败。当前期价下滑到上次低点(2015年12月17日低点)位置,该位置是否存在技术支撑?这也需要美盘豆油后市短线走势上的指引。在美盘豆油短线走势不明朗情况下,我们马盘棕榈油继续保持谨慎态度。

小结:美盘豆油短线下挫整理走势延续中,大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品短暂多头抵抗后,又继续追随美盘走弱。内盘与马盘油脂商品近几日成交量萎缩,交投不旺,多空主力在操作上均表现出谨慎态度。在美盘豆油具体回落到那个位置?没有出来结果前,对内盘与马盘油脂商品操作上以静制动,保持疲软走势下的观望心态。观点认为操作上:中长线原老多单继续持仓不动(因操作模式的周期层面手法不同,账面利润肯定是缩水了)。短线交易者的多单出局后规避了本波回落风险,耐心等待下一次的进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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