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Global Markets Analysis – 13 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.01.17 周五 美盘豆油b浪反弹高度浅析

昨日晚间美黄豆连长阳红盘上涨,一阳包多阴,美豆短线上涨凌厉–1月13日路透社芝加哥消息报道:美国农业部(USDA)昨日公布下调美国大豆2016/2017年度总产量 总库存量,其中美大豆预估至43.07亿蒲式耳,而11月份的预估值为43.61亿蒲式耳。美国2016/2017年末大豆库存预估为4.20亿蒲式耳,12月份预估值为4.80亿蒲式耳。整体报告呈现利多因素。而美盘豆油3月合约,昨日晚间也曾一度长阳K线红盘上涨,但随后美国农业部调高美豆油期末库存为16.52亿磅(而12月份时候才15.52亿磅),受此消息影响,美豆油3月合约昨日晚间以带长长上影线的小阳K线收盘。仔细观察美豆油3月当前的短线走势分析–本波美豆油的b浪反弹走势屡见波折,显示在12月底1月初触底时候–期价低位 耽误的时间略多了几天,随后又是期价反弹上行中力度不够,仅仅是小阳K线震荡反弹,虽然截止到今天(包括此刻今天亚洲电子盘)已经连续5连阳,但昨日晚间的长上影线,完全表明本波反弹可以定义为“弱势反弹”–我们在前段时间报告中所做的那张走势预测图–本来预测的第一目标要到2016.12.7日的前高附近(属于强势反弹),鉴于最近一段时候美豆油的走势表现,特别是昨日晚间本来长阳K线 , 却在收盘时候出现长上影线(昨日晚间 电脑前观察了美豆油一晚, 非常期望美豆油如美大豆一样也能长阳K线表现),鉴于此走势,我们建议把本波b浪反弹的目标高度要在思维上放低一下–不放到前高位置了(38.62),只先放到本波12.7日开始冲高回落到12月底触底, 这波回落整理的一半位置,也就是前波回落整理的50%位置,最多看到黄金分割线0.618位置,具体期价数字大概在37.10—37.50一线附近(预测值)。当前美豆油短线转身反弹走势延续中,我们继续关注美豆油3月合约的后续表现,此刻把反弹高度略微减小一些也是一种更为谨慎的心态思路。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油 1705主力合约,受美盘利多因素影响,内盘油脂商品豆油, 棕榈油今天周五盘面双双红盘上涨,短线的反弹上行走势延续中,前期多单继续持有,我们唯一要做的心理准备就是–在美盘豆油反弹上行到50%—61.8%位置时候就开始在对应的内盘油脂商品上逐步逢高减仓多单。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,今天周五盘面小阳K线表现,前期的高位横盘震荡状态延续中,期价临近区间整理的上沿部位,在马盘棕榈未发生大的变盘信号前,我们继续短多观点对待–具体操作上, 建议以内盘操作模式同样操作。(我们思维上仅仅是早于了市场实际走势一段时间)。

小结:美盘豆油震荡反弹上行延续中,内盘,马盘油脂商品上前期多单继续持有。我们略微调低美盘豆油B浪反弹上行的高度,更有利于在思维上保持多一份谨慎心态,不自暴自弃但也不盲目乐观—-以更稳健的心态对待当前市场盘面特征。操作上:前期多单谨慎持有,密切关注后市美盘豆油最新走势动向。

[SUMMARY]
• As upward correction of US soybean continues, it is advisable to continue holding long position on China and Malaysia edible oils.
• We should look at the technical indicators of US soybean oil without being overly optimistic nor pessimistic.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold on to their long position and observe the performance of US soybean oil with caution.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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