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Global Markets Analysis – 13 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.07.2015 周一 密切关注美盘豆油在60天均线位置的表现

美盘豆油12月合约,在上周瞬间下破日图表上关键技术位置后,当前期价快速探底反身走强,在临近上方60天线位置积蓄能量,后市等待美盘给出更为明确的短线方向指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周一早盘高开低走呈阴K线,下方7月9号的长下影线的阳K线,“金针探底”K线组合明显,在恐慌情绪过后,后市该瞬间的低位价格恐将不会再被触及,后市短线存在走强技术要求。不过在美盘豆油未突破60天线的阻挡(原先是支撑,目前是阻挡-支撑阻挡互换)前,内盘油脂商品将震荡上行等待美盘指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,上周7月8日的“早晨之星”K线语言明显,当前期价虽然未明显走高很多,但下方存在一定的明显支撑,当前期价震荡中等待方向,目前马棕榈油处于一个微妙情况下,当前位置短线上可上可下, 我们需要更多的关注美盘豆油已经周边市场的指引。

美盘原油短线下挫后已经连续5天横盘整理走势,盘中以时间换空间走势意图明显,不排除此走势仍延续时日。

中国股票市场上周末受政策性利好支持短线出现走强,中国政府对护盘中国股市信心充足,也完全有能力掌控市场节奏。

小结:油脂类商品经过上周惊心动魄的期价剧烈波动后,本周恐慌情绪已经得到初步控制,投资人心态渐稳。当前油脂商品的期价正在修复因恐慌造成伤害。在这微妙时刻,建议心态上即不要期望期价大幅上涨很多,但也不要看低很多,短线上尽量保持一个正常心态来对待当前市场,并且踏准短线节奏。短线角度我们以短多观点看待油脂商品,后市密切关注美盘豆油的方向指引。个人观点认为中长线多单在震荡中继续持仓不动。建议短线激进操作者的反手多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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