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Global Markets Analysis – 13 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.07.2016 周三 美盘豆油止跌企稳苗头出现 空单逢低平仓离场

美国农业部(USDA)周二公布7月份供需报告,将美国2015/2016年度大豆期末库存预估值下调至3.50亿蒲式耳,6月份时候的预估值是3.70亿蒲式耳。将2016/2017大豆年末库存上调至2.90亿蒲式耳,6月份时候预估值为2.60亿蒲式耳。供需报告还显示: 把2015/2016年度大豆出口上调至17.95亿蒲式耳,6月份出口预估值为17.60亿蒲式耳—–从报告分析,陈豆期末库存被下调,新豆库存上调,出口量上调,整体报告呈中性略带利好。昨日晚间美盘黄豆连受利好支持中阳红盘上涨,美盘豆油12月合约也追随美豆红盘表现,美豆油连续多日回落整理超跌之后略微出现止跌企稳迹象,期价出现短线角度的反弹技术要求苗头。

大陆内盘油脂商品如豆油和棕榈油 1609主力合约,今天周三盘中受美盘豆油上涨提振而高开高走,盘中中阳上涨表现,短线出现走强迹象,后市存在反身走强意愿要求。今日建议大陆内盘油脂商品对锁的多空仓单—–可逢低减持空单持仓量,保留多单单边持仓规模,后市期价存在反弹上涨机会。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周二盘中长阴下探之后,今天周三早盘跳空高开,底部背离状态较为明显,虽然期价反弹上行还不够清晰,但逢低平仓空单出场当属明智之举,建议锁仓交易者可空单平仓。

小结:美盘油脂类商品短线出现止跌企稳出步迹象,美盘豆油始终未打开回落空间,与我们此前的预期基本相似。美豆油后市存在反弹上行技术要求。个人看法是在操作上:前期多空仓单锁仓交易者可逢低平仓空单,后市期价存在上行要求,不盲目看空很多。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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