Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 13 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.07.2017周四前期低位多单平仓了结出局

美国农业部(USDA)昨日周三晚间公布7月份供需报告:美国2017/2018年度大豆播种面积预估值8950万英亩,与6月份预估8950万英亩保持不变(中性)。2017/2018年度大豆总产量将达到42.60亿蒲式耳,高出6月份美国农业部预测值500万蒲式耳(略利空)。 大豆单产数值未变仍为每英亩48.0蒲式耳。美国农业部将2016/2017年度大豆期末库存调低至4.10亿蒲式耳,较上月预测值调低了4000万蒲式耳(略利多)——整体分析昨日晚间报告基本呈现中性略利空含义。最新天气方面—–美国中西部地区周二周三有零星降雨,局部地区中到大雨。美盘黄豆连昨日周三晚间冲高回落中阴K线报收,结束了前期11连阳红盘飙涨走势,今天周四亚洲电子盘美大豆又呈现跳空低开低走中阴表现。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日小阴K线表现之后,今天亚洲电子盘又继续小阴走势——短线反弹走势也出现了“低头”苗头。

北京消息:中国农业部周三称,2017/2018年度中国大豆产量预计1473万吨,高于上月预测的1410万吨(产量预估值增加63万吨)。中国当前政策是努力消减玉米库存,鼓励农户种植更多的大豆。受该利空消息影响,今天周四盘面上,内盘豆粕低开低走中阴K线下跌。内盘豆油棕榈油1709主力合约也出现期价走低迹象,建议前期多单有计划的开始减持。

外媒7月13日消息:德国行业机构世界发布的报告显示:2017年全球生物柴油产量将增加至120万吨,达到3520万吨,而棕榈油将占到大部分的增幅。马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,在7月11日本周二时候,期价高开低走中阴K线冲高回落表现,随后昨日周三期价继续走低,今天周四早盘仍为小阴K线走低—–连续3天的阴K线,短线走势出现了变盘信号,建议多单减仓兑现出局。

小结:油脂类商品短线反弹走势出现变盘信号苗头——由于我们此前已经连续几天报告中提醒散户朋友逢高减仓建议,不排除部分散户朋友已经提前逢高兑现了部分仓单。鉴于今天周四盘面的不利情况,我们建议剩余多单继续兑现利润,严防到手利润化为虚有。具体操作:前期短线低位多单全部平仓了结出局。部分激进型散户交易者可反手短空操作,首批空单量可适当少些。

[SUMMARY]
• Reversal signals seem to have appeared amidst the short-term rebound of edible oils.
• In view of Thursday’s market conditions, it is advisable to secure profits on remaining long positions.

[ACTION]
• Traders may liquidate long positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock