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Global Markets Analysis – 13 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.06.2016 周一 在关键技术位前-继续等待美盘豆油短线走势指引

大陆内盘端午节-从上周四、周五、周六、周日连续4天停盘。在假期期间,国际原油市场-纽约原油冲高回落,美盘原油连在6月9日见高点51.67美元/桶后期价下滑,短线上获利盘多单的平仓兑现离场令期价冲高回落,后市存在短线角度的技术调整要求已经不可避免。

美盘大豆在假期期间,由于对巴西干旱担忧以及阿根廷非季节性降雨影响-对全球大豆供应担忧以及总产量下降、总库存下降、刚性需求的增加均对美国大豆形成利多支持,美盘黄豆连期价继续在2年以来的高位运行,短线的反弹上行态势延续中。

美盘豆油7月合约,美豆油这个品种当前短线走势就比较模糊了,前面报告中我们屡次提到上升趋势线(也就是原来的上行通道的下边轨线),美豆油期价当前就处于该位置,已经连续几天了在这徘徊震荡-我们早就说过,期价站稳关键技术位之上,我们短多看待。若期价仅仅是下破趋势线后的一种反抽动作,当在该位置受到技术阻挡后,期价不能突破阻挡,则我们会以短空看待。当前美豆油7月的不上不下,就令我们短线操作难度开始变大。我们不能盲目的猜测后市期价的运行方向, 只能耐心等待美豆油的明确指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,期价仍在顽强反弹上行中,今天周一早盘跳空高开,但盘中震荡下行,期价形成高开低走局面-表明内盘油脂商品反弹上行一段时间后也存在一定盘面压力,内盘油脂商品逢高减持多单仍为主要操作建议。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,在6月7日的一根长阴下跌,一阴包几阳-短线已经提前技术走坏,期价的回落下挫已经不可避免,在内盘端午节停盘期间,马盘棕榈连续几天小阴K线横盘震荡表现,虽然期价变化不是很大,但短线率先出现技术走低苗头,对马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,我们节前已经建议多单平仓离场,短空观点对待。

小结:在大陆内盘期货市场因公共假期停盘期间,美盘豆油期价仍在关键技术位之前犹豫徘徊震荡,在反弹上行过程中-当触及到关键技术阻挡位时候,若期价不能果断突破上去,连续几天一直震荡裹足不前-那势必会招来空头主力在关键阻挡位的封杀,我们思维上要保持谨慎态度,在美盘豆油尚未明确给出短线走势指引前,我们建议空仓交易者暂时场外观望一下,不比急于进场盲目操作,耐心等待美豆油7月的后市短线走势指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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