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Global Markets Analysis – 13 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.03.2017 周一 油脂类商品在内盘豆油拖累下率先走软

美国农业部(USDA)上周末时分的报告出炉——–报告内容严重利空,令油脂商品下行压力大增。前期美国传闻的生物燃油计划原本对油脂商品形成利多支持,但白宫有关官员站出来澄清,令当前美国油脂商品市场形成心理上压力。从美豆油5月合约走势上观察,上周末几天的期价下坠,令前段时间的2根长阳飙涨的阳K线多头阵地尽失(毁于一旦),当前美豆油空头力量卷土重来,盘面弱势特征开始明显,美豆油短线再次下探的走势较为明显。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,由于内盘豆油1705合约的率先走软领跌,内盘豆油的“底背离”式下探走势再次出现,当前期价回落到周K线图表上60周均线附近(该位置有一定技术支撑作用)。由于当前国内是油脂商品消费淡季,空头主力的刻意打压令我们前期的短线反弹走势 “无功而返”。内盘豆油短线走势严重拖累了马盘棕榈油的走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,从2月末时分开始的短线反弹走势,被上周五的一根跳空下跌小阴K线而瞬间形势逆转,原来短线的反弹上行宣告结束,由此看来,当前阶段的任何反弹走势难度大增,原本我们期待当反弹达到一定高度后多单出局,然后再逢高空单进场—–由于内盘豆油的率先领跌,令我们的短线操盘计划毁于一旦。也令我们2月末的低位多单账面盈利化为乌有。短线观察马棕榈,期价仍有追随内盘 美盘油脂商品走低的可能,我们目前多单减仓后,暂时观望一下一半天,从新制定新的操作计划。

小结:由于空头主力主动进场打压,内盘豆油率先领跌。美盘油脂商品基本面严重利空,也令美盘豆油期价下挫到前低附近。马盘棕榈油被迫低下高贵的头,期价也转为下跌。全球油脂类商品空头氛围浓厚,我们短线暂以疲软观点看待。具体操作上:多单减持后,我们暂时观望一下市场本次新的走势变化,带理清头绪后,我们从新制定操盘计划,多单未完全平仓完毕的散户操作者,可适当短线空单逢高短空,与前期多单形成操作上的“对锁”,来防止期价进一步的下挫而对多单形成的更大损失,后市短线我们暂以疲软短空观点看待。

[SUMMARY]
• China soybean oil declines under the pressure of strong short interest.
• Bearish factors are also driving down US soybean oil.
• Malaysia palm oil follows suit in decline.
• With strong bearish sentiment on global edible oils, we view the market as “fatigue”.

[ACTION]
• Traders may stay on the sidelines after reducing long positions.
• Traders may design new strategies after the market provides a clearer picture.
• Traders who still hold long positions may close-out those positions to prevent further losses if the market continues to decline.
• We hold a short-term short position outlook.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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