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Global Markets Analysis – 13 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.05.2016 周五 油脂类商品突然“回马枪”恐马盘棕榈油今日下跌

昨日周四晚间,小道消息传闻美国对华大豆出口数量减少,美黄豆连小幅下跌。而美盘豆油7月合约则出现了较大跌幅,期价长阴下挫,突然的“回马枪”令投资者措手不及。我们技术观察美盘豆油7月合约,该品种期价再次下跌到上升趋势线附近(该位置为32.10-32.20左右),目前美盘豆油7月尚在原来的上升通道中,仅仅是期价又一次靠近了下轨位置,短线上关注美盘豆油在趋势线支撑位置的表现成为我们的焦点。依然把趋势线位置作为风向标(止损点),在上方运行则多单持有, 当技术下破趋势线后则多单止损。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨日周四盘中期价就曾下跌,但期价仍在周三阳K线范围内,尚能容忍。但昨日晚间大陆内盘的豆油与棕榈油双双跌停,却令投资人颇感意外,盘中恐慌情绪弥漫,空头主力趁着夜晚有所发力,短线多头主力措手不及,其中内盘豆油尚在60天均线上方,而棕榈油1609合约期价已经掉落于多头排列的60天均线下方,建议密切关注今日内盘油脂商品走势,若棕榈油1609合约期价不能收复在均线之上,则多单只能止损离场。而豆油1609合约期价尚在60天均线上方,多单暂且谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,周三盘中的高开低走尚无走弱迹象,而昨日周四盘中的低开低走,令期价回落幅度较大,这不由让我们产生谨慎心态。前期我们的操作理念是-依托美盘豆油7月合约,在靠近下方上升趋势线位置(越靠近越好)而逢低进场埋伏多单进场,因此美盘豆油后市短线,在上升趋势线位置的具体表现就值得我们密切关注,若该位置美盘豆油不能保住,我们马盘棕榈油的短多操作也只能罢手。 在美盘豆油昨日晚间的长阳下跌影响下,恐马盘棕榈油今天周五盘中下跌难免,密切关注马棕榈今日的下跌幅度与力度。

小结:13号难道真是个不吉利的日子?美盘豆油7月的长阴下跌,瞬间又令短线盘面出现新的敏感变化,后市短线关注焦点就放在美盘豆油的趋势线位置。该位置是否依旧支撑有效?则成为关键,一旦下破支撑,多单就没有持有的技术理由了。 对这一未来短线走势,我们要保持谨慎的观点。个人观点认为具体操作上:当前美豆油期价尚在趋势线上方的通道内运行,继续依托美盘豆油的后市短线指引,在相应的内盘与马盘油脂商品上-美豆油在趋势线上方运行,内盘与马盘多单持有,美豆油一旦下破趋势线,则内盘与马盘油脂商品多单止损出局。建议密切关注美豆油的风向标走势情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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