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Global Markets Analysis – 13 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.11.2017周一美盘豆油强势上攻“昙花一现”后市下挫概率大增

美国农业部11月份供需报告不及市场人士预期,整体呈现“利空”性质,令前期多头主力信心受挫。上周美盘豆油12月合约期价“先扬后抑”(三天红盘上涨,二天阴K线下跌),期价波动反复性较为异常,当前美国大豆收割工作已经接近尾声,上周四晚间的农业部利空报告恐将给市场带来一些不稳定因素。在美国收获季节尾声阶段的同时,阿根廷巴西最新的大豆播种工作也在紧张的进行中,后期南美国家的天气炒作也将成为市场的关注焦点—-考虑到油脂类商品市场近期的期价“反复”,在多头主力信心突然受挫后,后市短线期价恐不能在得到拉升,油脂市场转为短线再度下挫的概率大增。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,受美国最新农业部报告利空情绪影响,上周五盘面期价中阴K线下跌,原先盘面的多头上攻氛围气息瞬间化为泡影,内盘油脂商品市场也存在一定的下挫压力,这样就回归到我们早先时候的思维状态—–内盘油脂类商品仍存在美盘豆油“强势扭转”失败后的下探技术要求,我们后市短线仍存在下挫之后的逢低多单埋伏机会(而不是像前几日那样,反手追多操作)。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,上周四高开低走阴K线表现(上攻失败),周五盘面低开高走小阳K线表现(盘中抵抗),马盘棕榈油短线走势上也是变化频率较快,市场上的不稳定情绪较浓。稳健操作者场外观望是不错的策略。考虑到豆油与棕榈油市场争夺需求份额以及市场走势的联动性,恐马盘棕榈油也将受豆油市场利空报告情绪的波及与伤害,再考虑到马来西亚令吉特近期的走强,这对非令吉特持有者买家来说—–显得马盘棕榈油价格更昂贵了一些,因此上,马盘棕榈油后市短线期价下挫的要求也更为明显了些。

小结:美盘豆油上周短线走势“先扬后抑”(报告出炉前上涨,报告出炉后下跌),由于美国农业部报告不及市场投资人士的“利多”预期,造成美盘豆油12月合约期价出现“异常波动”,市场的反复性给予部分激进型投资人士带来一定的短线伤害(稳健型场外观望人士未收到波及),考虑到美盘豆油技术上已经出现走坏迹象,我们给予上攻“假动作”失败后的短空观点对待。具体操作上:原激进型市场短多试盘仓单全部止损出局,与场外稳健型观望交易者一起新空单进场,后市油脂商品仍存在下探走势可能——–这样就回归到我们早先时候的下挫思维观点上来(不再被上周三前的强势扭转的上攻假动作所忽悠了),后市油脂类商品短线走势恐将受最新利空报告情绪影响一段时间——待整体期价下挫下来(下挫空间有待后续观察),恰好符合我们最早时候收获季节尾声阶段的逢低多单低位接盘机会的把握。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil dipped after USDA report released on last Friday.
• December soybean oil contract fluctuated wildly as USDA report released was below expectation of market traders.
• As US soybean oil fell in a technical rebound, we hold short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may cut losses and liquidate long positions.
• Conservative traders may initiate short positions as the market is expected to move downward.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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