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Global Markets Analysis – 13 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.10.2014 周一 油脂商品短线走势变化不大

上周末时分,美国与马来西亚均有重要报告公布,报告内容多空参半以偏空为主。本周一期货市场中油脂类商品期价变化不大,仍维持前期僵持状态,利空消息对市场的影响力度在逐步减弱,油脂商品在较低部位震荡吸收消化当前利空,盘面上抵抗性下跌较为明显,市场短线走势较为模糊。

在全球油脂商品低位震荡整理时,其他大宗商品市场中个别品种在今天早盘却出现了异动, 特别是以黄金 和白银为代表的贵金属,以铜和锌为代表的有色金属,以及以螺纹钢为代表的溅金属(黑色金属),甚至涉及到以煤炭为代表的能源类商品均出现了不同程度的短线反弹走势,特别是内盘螺纹钢1501合约,周一上午盘中一度出现涨停。

美原油在下破90美元重要关口后依然惯性下行,美元指数在前期强势反弹后出现短线的下挫整理,美黄金前几日出现触底反弹短线走势,三者之间中,美元指数与美黄金的跷跷板相反动作较为明显,而国际原油更多的受全球经济不景气以及供应量宽松影响单边下行。

小结:全球期货市场大宗商品短线走势分化,在大的下降趋势格局下,经过长期的下跌之后,短线角度上部分商品出现止跌企稳迹象。 油脂类商品由于季节性因素,在当前10月份美大豆收割期内仍然保持前期下行走势,但下挫幅度力度在逐步趋缓。我们对油脂类商品长线周期 、中线角度 、和短线层面走势的观点已经复述过多次(在此不再复述)。个人观点认为持有短线角度反弹多单者(马盘)可继续持有,后市若出现风吹草动可第一时间平仓了结,无单场外观望者继续观望。观望者可在油脂类商品短线走势模糊时(内盘),少量多单在金属类能源类(上面所提到的商品中)进场尝试短线反弹。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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