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Global Markets Analysis – 13 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.10.2015 周二 美盘纠结;内盘强势;马盘抵抗

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间走势呈冲高回落留长上影线,期价在反弹到60天均线关键技术阻挡位置仍显犹豫,在美国大豆收获季节最后阶段时期,盘面这种走势可以理解-多空主力对后市看法上还存在较大分歧。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,在昨日周一盘中长阳上涨之后,今天周二盘中仍继续顽强爬升,拉动日图表上短期均线上穿长期均线,能否真正“金叉上穿”成功则成为我们短线关注的焦点。对内盘油脂商品继续保持短多观点不变。

马盘棕榈油基准12月,昨天周一高开上冲,终盘留上影线,今天周二盘中留下影线,2天K线呈上下影线的“锤头”K线,在前面经过4天的快速下跌之后,盘面上出现了下跌抵抗迹象,由此看来下方的回落整理空间应该不会太大,短线回落整理行情显然还在延续中,建议继续耐心等待回落调整结束后的多单进场机会。

小结:美国大豆收割进行中,在10月后半阶段才能完全结束。美盘油脂商品此刻仍处于上下两难阶段,短线走势不够干脆清晰。从中长线长期角度来说,在从供应炒作的后期以及未来开始转为需求炒作的大前提下,我们在收获季节的末期–低谷阶段往以后日子看。个人认为观点一定要往上看的,也就是说长期角度仍建议以行情大反转观点对待,保持中长线看多观点不变。建议一定要有耐心。因为还有一个重大利多题材还没有被完全挖掘出来-“厄尔尼诺现象”对油脂商品的影响。个人观点认为大陆内盘油脂商品多单继续持有;马盘棕榈油长线继续看多,但短线暂时停止操作,场外观望,等待再次多单进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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