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Global Markets Analysis – 13 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.10.2016 周四 市场吸收消化美国农业部报告;美豆油在纠结情绪中波动震荡

今日凌晨美国农业部最新报告出炉:美大豆收获面积预计为8300万英亩(创纪录数字),大豆单产数字上调至每英亩51.4蒲式耳,比9月份预估值高出0.8蒲式耳,但低于市场预测的51.5蒲式耳。2016-2017年度美大豆总产量将达到42.7亿蒲式耳(创纪录)。美大豆结转库存小幅增加0.3亿蒲式耳至3.95亿蒲式耳。单单从报告数据分析,各类数字基本在市场投资人的预料中,市场正在吸收消化该消息的负面影响。美豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间先扬后抑,期价在纠结气氛中波动震荡,终盘以带上影线的阴K线下跌收盘。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,受美盘大豆与豆油昨日晚间的疲弱走势影响,今天周四早盘低开低走,期价再度出现下挫走势,本周二的长阳上涨幅度再度被吞回,我们谨慎心态对待内盘油脂商品短线走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在周二与周三中阳上涨之后,今天周四盘中小阴K线表现,期价波动不大,盘面成交不活跃,成交量萎缩,市场观望气氛较浓,提前设置好止损前提下,心理上谨慎的短多思维对待。

小结:当前全球油脂类商品处于一个尴尬境界-短期庞大的市场供给压力与中长期的刚性强烈需求之间的博弈。投资人迷茫于这2种情绪氛围内,因此产生了较为纠结的心理层面影响。也就是说:短线的期价波动下挫走势于中长线的筑底后的反弹上行走势,二者由于操作周期角度的不同,产生了操作难度加大的局面。从基本常识上来说-农产品收获季节的期价往往是一年中价格最低的阶段,期价可以波动震荡,但大的筑底区域仍是整体低位区域。所以我们还会继续保持前期的大观点操作思路不变,不受短线纠结心态影响。观点认为操作上:少量多单个人设置好个人的止损位继续持有,逢低多单进场仍是我们后市短线角度的主流操作思维模式、继续保持不变。建议密切关注美盘豆油最新的走势变化。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oil is in an awkward position: large short-term supply pressure wrestles with strong medium and long-term demand.
• These two contrasting market conditions give investors conflicting sentiments.
• Short-term downtrend and medium and long-term upward reversal make trading difficult.
• Major support remains at the overall bottom area.
• We shall maintain our outlook, without being influenced by short-term dilemma.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain small amounts of long positions, protected by stop-loss mechanism.
• We shall maintain our view that short-term traders may enter long positions at a lower entry price.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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