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Global Markets Analysis – 13 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.10.2017周五美国农业部报告利多美盘表现不俗内盘马盘小幅跟随

北京时间今日周五凌晨,美国农业部报告尘埃落定:2017/2018年度美国大豆产量预计为创纪录的44.31亿蒲式耳,与9月份预测数值不变。2017/2018年度大豆期末库存调低至4.30亿蒲式耳,9月份时候为4.75亿蒲式耳。大豆收获面积调高至8950万英亩,比9月份的8870万英亩调高了80万英亩。美国大豆单产调低为49.5蒲式耳/英亩,低于9月份预测的49.9蒲式耳/英亩,也低于去年的52.0蒲式耳/英亩——–从报告内容分析:美大豆单产量数字意外调低,普遍低于市场分析人士所预测的50.0蒲式耳/英亩。报告内容呈利多成分。昨日晚间,美盘黄豆连期价长阳暴涨,一举创出三个月来最高单日涨幅,期价临近1000美分关口。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间期价曾一度剧烈波动,后追随美盘大豆走高,终盘以带上下影响的中阳K线收盘,今天周五亚洲电子盘继续红盘中阳表现,我们对美盘豆油延续反弹上行观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,在美国利多性质报告出炉后,内盘油脂市场表现一般,仅内盘大豆豆粕2个品种长阳上涨跟随。内盘豆油棕榈油未发力上扬,我们等待后续表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在美国利多消息传来之后,马盘棕榈油表现也异常的平淡,今天周五盘面依旧十字星表现,马来西亚棕榈油局本周二的利空报告的心理影响还未完全消退,再加上对10月份马来西亚棕榈油产量增加至高峰值的担忧,令马棕榈未能出色表现,但我们短多观点保持不变。继续关注后续表现。

小结:美国农业部报告呈现利多性质(超出市场分析人士的预期),美盘大豆 美盘豆油表现不俗,特别是美盘大豆长阳飙涨。内盘马盘油脂商品不为所动(看来我们前期弱势反弹的观点还是比较理智,正确的),市场表现平静而淡定,我们期待后续的补涨机会。具体操作上:悬在我们头顶上的靴子落地,基本面情况逐渐明朗,马盘基本面略显利空,美盘基本面利多——短线情况明朗后,我们前期多单继续持有,部分激进型交易者可今天少量加仓多单,等待后市的补涨机会,本波反弹上行我们继续保持“弱势反弹,超跌后的技术修复”观点,后市反弹高度依旧不看太高,做追随性操作。

[SUMMARY]
• The latest USDA report boosted bullish sentiment in the market, exceeding analysts’ expectation, which lifted soybean and soybean oil prices.
• China and Malaysia edible oils, however, shrugged off such enthusiasm, as markets remain quiet.
• Our outlook remains: a light short-term technical rebound following a sharp decline.
• The strength of the rebound may be subdued. Therefore, we must be flexible with our strategies.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions
• Aggressive traders may increase long positions, in anticipation of a catch-up with US markets.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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