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Global Markets Analysis – 13 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


13.09.2016周二 上周五欧美股市暴跌;周一传导到亚太股市;全球期货市场也为之震荡

上周五时分,道琼斯股票指数、纳斯达克指数、标准普尔500指数全部长阴暴跌,周一时候传导到亚太股市,一片狼藉。多亏昨日周一晚间红盘中阳上涨抵消部分跌幅,但周五的长阴K线失地不能被收复的话,短线全球股票市场仍有下行风险。期货市场也未曾避免-伦敦铜、锌、黄金、白银、原油、橡胶、黑色金属、建材农产品(白糖与小麦除外)等等大宗商品普遍受到不同程度影响,甚至植物油市场都被波及-美豆油12月合约,周一晚间中阴下挫,原有的反弹上行走势出现波动,我们密切关注周一的阴K线是否能收复,建议关注今日夜间美盘豆油表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周一盘中也同样出现中阴下跌(豆油下跌幅度大于棕榈油),盘中部分多头出逃迹象明显,在今天周二美豆油亚洲电子盘红盘表现下,内盘油脂商品勉强走高,尚待观察周一的失地能否被收回,暂且以静制动对待,暂不盲目操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日周一因公共假期停盘,躲过一劫。今天周二早盘开盘低开,但整体跌幅不大,受到的不利影响较为微弱,前期的强势反弹上行走势还未遭到严重破坏,这在一定程度上给予我们散户朋友多单继续持有的信心。

小结:全球油脂类商品期价出现剧烈波动,恐慌情绪在一定程度上蔓延,不排除有部分多头主力敏感资金出逃迹象。建议密切关注随后市场短线角度走势上能否把周一的中阴下跌的阴K线失地收复,只有该失地被收回,后市才有望继续反弹上行,否则我们也只有多单减持。观点认为具体操作上:各类周期多单谨慎持有,特别是短线交易者,关注后两天是否能快速吞没阴K线的失地,以此来确定我们短线交易的操作策略(多亏当前棕榈油的短线强势略微给我们一定的信心支持)。

[ENGLISH SUMMARY]
• Negative sentiment continues due to volatile global prices of vegoils.
• Liquidation of long positions by large holders possible.
• Monitor short-term movements that may cover losses on Monday as market may rebound; otherwise reduce holdings of long positions.
• Remain cautious of various maturities of long positions; particularly those of short-term traders.
• Best to observe movement in the next two days before any next short-term strategy.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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