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Global Markets Analysis – 14 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.04.2016 周四 全球油脂类商品短线走势继续分化

纽约原油市场国际原油期价继续反弹上行走势,严重超跌之后的报复性反弹延续中,当前期价维持在前高41.20一线。

美盘黄豆连昨日晚间又出现长阳上涨,短线四连阳的的上涨反弹走势较为明显,创出自去年8月以来的新高,期价后市仍有上行空间。

美盘豆油5月合约,在前期3月2日开始的反弹上行走势之后,近期短线出现回落整理走势,但期价的下探整理幅度不大,属于强势整理范畴,我们继续关注该品种在下方那根均线位置得到技术支撑。

大陆内盘豆粕1609合约,短线追随美盘大豆反弹走势,期价出现走强,也呈现4连阳红盘上涨。内盘豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,纠结于美盘豆油与美盘大豆的分化走势,短线的多头主力并未完全放弃抵抗,昨日周三盘中,期价一度长阳上涨,后略有回落,终盘以带长上影线的阳K线收盘,盘中多空主力的争夺较为激烈,短线的回落与中长线的上涨因操作周期的不同,多空分歧加大,短线操作情绪上出现了异常波动,短线市场心态不稳。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,单个品种的冲高回落整理短线行情延续中,截止今天已经连续8天阴K线下挫走势,回落整理迹象明显。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线走势情绪化,各个品种间的走势分化现象还比较严重,我们在整体回落整理观点不变情况下,具体品种上我们要略微区别对待,大豆与豆粕以短线反弹看待。植物油商品以强势的略带抵抗情绪的回落整理看待。观点认为具体操作上:植物油商品短线空单继续持有,为以防外一的回落整理提前结束,可部分短线激进操作者的空单逢低继续减仓以及提前离场。后市继续关注美豆油的具体走势情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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