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Global Markets Analysis – 14 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


14.04.2017 周五 美盘因公共假期停盘一天 下周开始“天气炒作”开始纳入日程

阿根廷最新消息:由于接连暴雨,阿根廷大豆有近百公顷遭遇水灾。美国当前玉米 大豆播种工作也将陆续展开,后市油脂类商品市场在美国农业部报告公布之后,市场投资人会逐渐将关注焦点转移到天气方面来。昨日晚间美黄豆连再度中阳上涨,低位横盘之后反弹雏形已经开始明朗。美豆油5月合约依旧在低位十字星小幅波动探底。今天周五是美国“耶稣受难日”假期,CBOT市场休市一天。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油 1709主力合约,在缺少美盘豆油短线走势指引情况下,今天内盘油脂商品短线走势呈现小幅波动震荡状态,成交量萎缩,期价呈十字星窄幅波动,市场观望气氛较浓。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在美盘停盘内盘窄幅波动情况下,马盘棕榈今日周五盘面也成交清淡,盘面上空头气焰略有收敛。马来西亚政府将5月份出口关税下调至7%,4月份为7.5%。市场对此利好消息表现不明显(出口关税下调有利于马棕榈油出口)。

小结:美盘因假期停盘一天,内盘马盘油脂商品短线走势失去方向指引,今天市场表现为小幅波动震荡,期价波幅变化不大,市场观望气氛较浓。我们依旧保持超跌之后“中线回落探底”观点不变,继续等待技术反弹“拐点”走势的出现。操作上:前期多单继续持有,空仓交易者继续做好逢低多单进场接盘的思想准备,等待下周市场新的变化。

[SUMMARY]
• With US market closed for public holiday, trading of China and Malaysia edible oils lack enthusiasm.
• Price fluctuation is mild, with many market participants staying on the sidelines.
• Our outlook remains: seeking a medium-term low point and anticipating a rebound signal.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long position.
• Traders without position may prepare to go long when prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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